A warm and unsettled pattern has settled into place across Western Wyoming over the past week. As a result, we have seen persistent cloud cover, frequent shots of light to moderate snow in the Tetons, and a thaw in the valley due to mild temperatures. Snow totals over the 7-days have ranged from 17-25″ in the Tetons and only 1-3″ in the Jackson Hole Valley.
While snowfall has not been as heavy compared to earlier this month, the consistent light to moderate snow has pushed Jackson Hole’s Rendezvous Bowl plot snow total (elevation 9,580 feet) to 146″ for the month of January, which is just four inches shy of the January record of 150″ set in 1998.
As for the warmer temperatures, highs in the town of Jackson have reached the mid to upper 30s over the past two days and low temperatures have only barely fallen below freezing. These are balmy temperatures for this time of year!
As we head into the final days of January, the pattern of unsettled weather and warmer than average temperatures will continue, though temperatures will be a little bit colder compared to recent days.
Some partial clearing in the cloud cover is occurring late Monday morning as an early morning system exits. The next storm will arrive on Tuesday, bringing more snow to the Tetons from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Snowfall amounts from this storm should range from 4-8″ in the Tetons, while the Jackson Hole Valley should pick up around 1-3″ since temperatures will be a little colder, with highs Tuesday in the low 30s falling into the mid 20s Tuesday night.
Conditions will start to dry out again from Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday, then another weak storm will brush the area Thursday night and Friday morning. Based on current projections, this storm will likely track a bit too far north and east of Jackson Hole, and as a result, only light snowfall should be expected.
There is a chance that another weak system could brush the area on Friday night, but I wouldn’t hold my breathe as high-pressure will be building in from the south during this time.
On Saturday, we will likely see a break in the pattern with sunny skies, and also much warmer air aloft arriving at the higher elevations. If you’re out skiing on Saturday, it will feel almost spring-like with mid to upper mountain temperatures nearing or exceeding the freezing mark.
Valley temperatures over the upcoming weekend will be dependent on the strength/timing of inversions that will be setting up, and whether or not they erode during the afternoons. If the inversions remain in place, we could see valley temperatures hold in the 20s, but if they erode then valley temperatures could soar to near 40.
The warm spell will, at last, come to an end by Sunday night or Monday as the next storm arrives from the northwest, and a shot of colder arctic air follows.
The image below shows a blended temperature forecast from many models over the next week for the Jackson Hole Airport. This gives a good general idea of what to expect, but the weekend temperature projections could miss the mark if and when inversions develop.
