EDITOR’S NOTE: This is a theory presented by one source and in no way implicates that any of the CDC warnings and procedures should be ignored. Please continue to adhere to the guidelines of physical distancing, wearing masks, and self-quarantining if you have traveled or feel sick and follow all county and state health orders.
JACKSON, Wyo. — Jackson physician Dr. Brent Blue has been outspoken in recent weeks regarding the pandemic over COVID-19. His opinion is shared by other medical professionals around the globe and, if he’s right, it’s a game-changer.
Simply put, there is a hypothesis that COVID has been in the U.S.—has been in Jackson Hole—long before the timeline says it arrived in the state via Washington on January 19, 2020. That terrible cold (or “crud” as it is referred to by locals), the one that caused a cough that you just couldn’t shake, might have been the coronavirus.
It’s just a theory, and one that experts say would require more testing to prove. But it could have major implications
There was no test for it then and, until January 7, when China finally identified a “mysterious respiratory disease” as a new coronavirus, no one in the U.S. had any idea what that nasty cough was.
“We didn’t know it was here, and we didn’t know from the Chinese the severity of things. We really don’t know when it arrived here,” says Dr. Blue. “But we have so many international tourists here it would be almost impossible for COVID not to have been here.”
Blue referenced a local restaurant that was bought out by a group from China last winter. Thousands of Chinese tourists visit Jackson Hole via tour buses. Blue, himself, said he traveled in February to Norway with a few international connections along the way.
“I had to have been exposed on that trip,” Blue says.
Timing is everything
So, what does it mean if the coronavirus was in Jackson Hole before WHO said so, before the CDC advised all that handwashing, and before testing began the daily ‘body count’ numbers we started seeing since patient zero on March 18?
It’s crucial, in fact.
If the clock toward herd immunity was started months before St. Patrick’s Day, Independence Day is arriving sooner than thought.
“Hundreds of thousands, even millions of people, were infected and had minimal to no symptoms. They have recovered and have antibodies,” Blue postulates.
And those antibodies will show up in serum antibody tests, which were just approved by the FDA and are expected to be available in a few weeks. Blue says the results will be revealing.
“The antigen test proves infection and confirms someone has COVID,” Blue says. He has been offering these tests at his Emerg-a-Care clinic in Jackson. “An antibody test would show who may have been infected and subsequently cured and now immune. Anyone turning out to be positive had to have already been exposed to the virus and built up an antibody to the infection. What we will find is a large number of people in this community have had COVID already based on so many international visitors we are exposed to here.”
Knowing these numbers will help to paint a clearer picture of the disease spread. Right now, the contagion is thought to have a reproduction formula of R2-3—meaning an infected person likely spreads the disease to another two or three people. COVID-19 is considered particularly infectious because of the amount of time an infected person can be showing no symptoms but be shedding the virus.
But Dr. Blue says this is fairly typical of other diseases like chickenpox and measles. A COVID patient typically is contagious 24 to 48 hours before displaying symptoms, and may even be totally asymptomatic during the course of the infection. Some 80-90% of people infected with the coronavirus may never exhibit significant enough symptoms for them to even recognize they are sick, according to Blue.
On the assumption we may have been passing around COVID in the valley unknowingly, what would that say about the communicability and mortality rate of COVID-19?
“The numbers of cases and deaths are as deceiving as Nixon’s body counts in Vietnam. The trend is more important than the absolute numbers,” Blue says. “When these antibody serum test become widely available, anyone who tests positive for the antibody should immediately go back to work. They are immune. This knowledge will also help us know the real mortality rate instead of the mortality rate against tested individuals.”
Have we overreacted to the pandemic?
Real numbers better define a target date for when this nightmare of a pandemic ends; when restrictions can be eased and life can begin to return to normal.
Some experts talk in terms of years—18 months before a vaccine is developed. Blue says the economy will not survive that long, for one. And keeping people shut in for an extended period makes the cure worse than the contagion.
“There will not be a drug to treat Covid-19 soon. At least a year out, if ever. There will not be a vaccine for at least a year, maybe never,” Blue says. “Look, how long have we been trying, unsuccessfully, to find a cure or vaccine for the common cold?”
As of Thursday morning, April 9, Wyoming has 230 cases of COVID-19, 45 in Teton County. Worldwide, 1.5M cases confirmed with nearly 90,000 dead.
Scarier numbers? Some 16.8 million Americans have been thrown onto unemployment rolls in just three weeks, according to the AP.
“Obviously, slowing the spread by social distancing will help but I think will ultimately cost more lives due to the impact on the world’s economy,” Blue says.
He cites economic depression resulting in “deaths of despair” from suicide, food insecurity, opioid/drug overdose, and, especially in developing countries, starvation and the return of diseases which had been suppressed.
What will signal it’s okay to get off the couch and come out of hiding?
“Covid-19 is going to burn through the population. The only question is how fast is it going to burn?” Blue says. “Most experts say we’re past the point of containing the virus, like we did with SARS and MERS. That means that COVID-19 is here to stay, and the pandemic will end only with herd immunity.”
Herd immunity is generally defined as approximately 75% of a population developing an immunity to any given virus. When this tipping point is reached, an outbreak is slowed significantly.
So, are stay-at-home orders and social distancing measures just delaying the inevitable? Should we all just ‘group hug’ and get it over with?
Blue says flattening the curve is a valid thing but drastic restrictions may be going too far.
“Everyone has a right to be afraid of this virus. However, that does not mean they cannot be rational. It is not that horrible of a disease,” Blue assures. “There have been other outbreaks like swine flu and H1N1 that people were afraid of, and influenza kills lot of people every year. But the big difference with COVID is giving it to everyone at one time. This is a new virus and no one has immunity to it yet.”
However, if speculation that the virus has already trotted around the globe earlier than February and March is true, herd immunity may be protecting more people from COVID than social distancing right now.
A recent study, highlighted by ABC News, floats a hypothesis that COVID-19 first started spreading in California in the fall of 2019 and is one explanation for the state’s lower than expected case numbers.
“A slightly lower number will die if our health system is not overwhelmed, which it is not at this time regardless of anecdotal news reports,” Blue admits. “So, my answer is if a person is old or in a high-risk group, stay at home. If a person is sick with classic COVID symptoms, they need to isolate no matter what. Everybody else back to work. Get the economy moving again so we can prevent a global depression. It may already be too late, but it is not going to get better by waiting.”
It’s a view shared by others including Jay Bhattacharya, MD PhD, at Stanford who wrote an op-ed titled “Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?” in the Wall Street Journal on March 24.
End game scenario?
Blue points to a slow recovery beginning late next month. It won’t be an overnight “all clear” siren but a gradually building momentum and return to normal.
“Some of it will be based on antibody testing which may provide information on immunity for people who have had the disease. Some will be based on a [downward trending] of the number of cases and deaths. Some of it will be based on the general inability to keep people and the economy pent up,” Blue shares.
In the meantime, Blue suggests everyone keep themselves healthy—mentally and physically. Eat right, get exercise, and don’t be afraid to pet your dog.
“Dogs do not get colds or COVID. Dogs do not spread COVID,” Blue declares “In order to get COVID from a dog, someone with COVID would have to cough, sneeze or spit on a dog. Then a person would have to pet the dog and then touch their own face. It is theoretically possible but the odds of winning a lottery are better.”
