Jackson Hole Weather June 28-July 4, 2022

JACKSON, Wyo. — Warm temperatures will prevail over the final few days of June and into the first week of July with generally pleasant summer conditions expected. We will see afternoon thunderstorms on Tuesday and again over the holiday weekend, but significant rainfall is not expected at this time.

June 21-27 Recap

Over the previous week, we have experienced our quietest stretch of weather in a long time as high pressure took control. Temperatures were in the 70s or 80s during each of the previous days, and conditions were beautiful and green coming out of a cool and wet spring.

The only active day last week was on Thursday, June 23 when thunderstorms developed across the region, but rainfall amounts in Teton County were minimal with generally a trace to a few hundredths of an inch in the valley and up to a tenth of an inch in the Tetons. Up to a quarter-inch of rain fell across the northern half of Yellowstone and further south in Star Valley.

High temperatures over the past week ranged from 71ºF on June 21 to 83ºF on June 27, and low temperatures ranged from 31ºF on June 21 to 52ºF on June 24.

Forecast for Tuesday (6/28) to Monday (7/4)

Summer is in full swing now and it will feel like it over the next week with warm temperatures and occasional afternoon thunderstorms.

On Tuesday, a disturbance is moving into the Northern Rockies, and moisture associated with this disturbance will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms early in the afternoon.

As of this writing (early Tuesday afternoon), high-based showers containing marginal amounts of moisture were moving through the area. Much of the rain was evaporating before reaching the ground, causing downdrafts to accelerate and produce strong wind gusts across the area.

By later Tuesday afternoon, highs will warm up into the 80s in the valley with scattered thunderstorms developing. Storms will generally produce light to briefly moderate rainfall along with gusty winds and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. Storms will be fairly quick-moving from west/southwest to east/northeast.

A cold front will move through on Wednesday morning and we could see some isolated light showers/sprinkles on Tuesday night and into early Wednesday. Otherwise, drier air will be arriving behind the front, and thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday afternoon.

However, skies will be partly cloudy and winds will be quite strong on Wednesday, gusting up to 35 mph at times in the valley. Temperatures will be a little cooler as well with highs in the upper 70s.

High pressure will rebuild late this week, resulting in dry and sunny conditions on Thursday with highs topping out near 80 in the valley. Winds will become breezy in the afternoon, but lighter compared to prior days.

The warming trend will continue on Friday with highs reaching the low to mid 80s under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. A trough of low pressure setting up along the West Coast will place us under a southwest flow, which will begin to transport some monsoonal moisture into the area.

As a result, we could see some isolated thunderstorms develop on Friday afternoon and evening, with only brief and light rainfall expected at this time.

Afternoon thunderstorm chances will increase on Saturday and Sunday with temperatures continuing to run warmer than average for the beginning of July as highs reach the mid 80s. For the Fourth of July on Monday, storm chances may start to decrease somewhat as drier air is projected to arrive, but confidence is low at this time.

Extended Outlook

Beyond the Fourth, confidence is increasing that we will head into a hotter and drier pattern from July 5 through 10 as high pressure strengthens over the Western U.S. and the flow of monsoonal moisture remains suppressed to the south across the Four Corners region.

As a result, thunderstorm chances look minimal next week (beyond Monday) and we could see high temperatures getting into the upper 80s in the valley by later in the week.

Alan Smith, Meteorologist