JACKSON, Wyo. – June has featured many beautiful weather days, but the lack of moisture is already leading to a rise in fire danger. Jackson has only received 0.40 inches of rainfall in the past 30 days, and the forecast continues to look dry over the next one to two weeks.
Recent Weather
June has been a very warm and dry month so far. Around the middle of last week, we had a few days of more interesting weather with three thunderstorm days in a row from June 10 to 12.
Jackson picked up 0.29 inches of rain during this three-day stretch while areas around Teton Pass and Jackson Hole Mountain Resort received heavier rainfall of close to an inch. However, this is the only appreciable rainfall that Teton County has received since the third week of May.
June is Jackson’s second driest month on average, but the town of Jackson still averages 1.38 inches of rainfall in June. We are likely to finish well below the average June rainfall mark this year.
So far, temperatures are running 3.7 degrees above normal in Jackson for the month of June.
Summer outdoor recreation has been outstanding lately, but a much hotter and drier than normal June, such as what we are experiencing now, on the heels of an average winter, usually does not bode well for wildfires and smoke later in the summer unless a much wetter pattern manages to emerge down the road.
Upcoming Weather Pattern
Lately, weather systems have been passing just a bit too far north of our area, and this trend looks to continue over the next 1-2 weeks with significant rainfall at times over Montana, while Jackson Hole looks to see only occasional light and spotty rainfall at best.
We are going to see a bit of a temperature roller coaster, however, including a brief but significant cooldown on Sunday.
First, a big warm-up will occur on Thursday, and this could potentially be our warmest day of the year so far with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s.
A cold front will move through on Saturday with highs in the 70s, followed by a more significant cooldown on Sunday with highs only in the 60s. There is a slight chance of a few light showers on Sunday, but it looks marginal at best.
On Sunday night, temperatures may drop to freezing in the town of Jackson for the first time since May 25.
Next week, a gradual warming trend is expected with highs in the 70s expected early to mid-week.
We could potentially see some light showers or thunderstorms on the southern fringe of the favored storm track early next week, but it will take some luck (or a southern shift in weather model projections) to get anything more than light and spotty rainfall.
The image below is a 7-day rainfall projection from the European Ensemble Model, which represents the average of 50 simulations of this model. Only light rainfall is projected for Teton County, with much heavier rainfall north of the Montana border.
Looking further out through the end of June, high pressure will gradually rebuild over the Western U.S., and we will likely see a return to above-normal temperatures. Average highs in late June are in the mid to upper 70s for perspective.
Rain chances continue to look sparse as well, other than some occasional isolated thunderstorm chances sneaking into the picture.
It does look like the North American Monsoon will get going over the next week or so in the Southwest U.S. This will be something to keep an eye on in July and August, as northward monsoon surges usually represent our best chances of mid to late summer rainfall.
Alan Smith, Meteorologist
