The weekend storm has not come together exactly as expected so far, though snowfall will be picking up across the Tetons during the day Sunday. In the town of Jackson, a pocket of warmer air is resulting in above freezing temperatures and rain as of 7:00 am Sunday morning.
For the Tetons, the timing of the heavier snow has been delayed until after 5 am snow reports, but it does appear that short-range models have been on board with this scenario over the past 24 hours.
Current temperatures as of 7:00 am Sunday range from 35-37 F, and as a result, we are seeing rain in town.
The rain does appear to be isolated to the town of Jackson. West and north of town, from Teton Village to the Jackson Hole Airport, temperatures are near to below freezing and snow is falling instead of rain. In fact, the base area of Jackson Hole Mountain Resort in Teton Village is reporting 2″ of new snow overnight. Here are the current temperatures along the West Bank as of Sunday morning.
Sunday morning temperatures at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort range from 31 at the base, to 27 at mid-mountain, to 22 at the top of the tram.
As far as snow goes in the Tetons, it has mostly held off until after 5 am snow reports. Overnight snow amounts of only 2″ were reported first thing this morning. The good news is that better moisture and energy have arrived in the past hour, and more snow will accumulate in the mountains throughout the day on Sunday. Here is the 7 am satellite image showing the recent uptick in moisture.
For snow amounts, short-range models are still ambitious in projecting a foot or more snow in the Tetons through about 9 pm Sunday evening when it is expected to taper off. However, we are a bit more skeptical given we missed out on the snow Saturday night and only have about a 12-15 hour window of snow now.
Our forecast will call for an additional 4-10″ of snow in the Tetons from Sunday morning through Sunday evening, with the larger range in forecasted amounts accounting for the uncertainty that has crept into this setup.
For the town of Jackson, expect a rain/snow mix for most of the day Sunday. By early evening Sunday, a cold front will arrive with falling temperatures so precipitation will change to all snow after 5 pm. Any accumulations in town will be light, however, ranging from a trace to 1″.
Valley areas west and north of Jackson, including Wilson, Teton Village, and Grand Teton National Park will see colder temperatures and more snow than in town, with additional amounts ranging from 1-4″ for these areas. Mid to upper mountain portions of Snow King will likely see similar amounts.
The best skiing conditions on the mountain will occur Sunday afternoon once the snow has had a chance to accumulate more.
Avalanche Danger is still rated as CONSIDERABLE by the Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center.
A Winter Storm Warning (issued by the National Weather Service in Riverton) remains in effect for the Teton and Gros Ventre Mountains as well as the Jackson Hole Valley until 9 pm Sunday.
Alan Smith, Meteorologist, JacksonHoleSnowForecast.com
