Mild air is surging into Teton County on Monday morning with temperatures currently in the upper 40s in the valley and freezing levels rising above 10,000 feet. Areas above 8,000 feet in the Tetons managed to pick up some light snow on Sunday evening before the warm air arrived.

The main plume of subtropical moisture associated has become focused just west and north of Teton County, so we will see cloudy skies but only occasional light showers for most of the day on Monday with heavier rainfall farther north in Yellowstone, and to a lesser extent, farther west over Teton Valley and out toward Idaho Falls.

Winds will become gusty out of the south/southwest during the day on Monday with gusts to 30-35 mph over the valley and up to 75 mph above 10,000 feet in the Tetons.

Snow levels will remain high during the day on Monday, generally in the 9,500-10,500 foot range, but light rain could fall as high as 11,000 feet at times.

Monday Night

The real action will arrive early on Monday evening as a cold front approaches with a round of more intense precipitation likely between roughly 6 p.m. and midnight. Snow levels will remain high ahead of the front, but will drop behind the front, reaching the 8,000-foot level between about 8-10 p.m.

Heavy, wet snow will fall in the Tetons through the evening with rain in the valley and over the mid to lower elevations. Precipitation will become lighter and more showery after midnight, and snow levels will eventually reach the valley floor by sunrise on Tuesday morning, but we probably won’t see any accumulation this low.

Snow totals on Monday night will range from 3-7 inches between 9,000-10,000 feet and 1-3 inches between 7,500-9,000 feet. There could be some slick spots near the top of Teton Pass during Tuesday morning’s commute as colder temperatures settle in.

Tuesday – Wednesday

Additional snow showers can be expected during the day on Tuesday with more activity expected during the morning versus the afternoon. Snow levels will remain on the valley floor but temperatures will be above freezing so no accumulation is expected.

Another disturbance will arrive from the west on Tuesday evening, with snow shower activity picking back up overnight and continuing through the first half of the day on Wednesday. It’s possible we could wake up to very light accumulations on the valley floor on Wednesday morning, but roads will likely not be impacted down low.

Additional snowfall on Tuesday and Wednesday will range from 3-8 inches above 8,000 feet in the Tetons, and Wednesday morning’s commute will be snowy over Teton Pass.

Extended Outlook

Conditions will start to dry out on Wednesday night and Thursday with milder temperatures, but stubborn cloud is likely to persist. Warmer temperatures and increasing sunshine can then be expected on Friday.

Over the weekend, a cold front will likely move through from the north sometime on Saturday or Saturday night with a quick round of rain/snow showers possible, though confidence is low on timing, snow levels, etc. at this time.

Alan Smith, Meteorologist

 

 

 

Alan is a professional meteorologist who holds a degree from MSU Denver and writes weather forecasts for Buckrail. He has lived in Jackson full-time since 2015. He is currently a Meteorologist and Operations Manager for OpenSnow, which is a weather forecasting service for skiing and outdoor adventures. At OpenSnow, Alan writes forecasts for the Tetons, Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and North America as a whole.