JACKSON, Wyo. — March is off to a dry start in Northwest Wyoming and what once was a healthy snowpack is now starting to decline relative to average. On March 1, the Rendezvous Bowl Plot at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort had a settled snow depth of 109 inches, but as of March 15, the snowpack had decreased to 96 inches.
Typically, the snowpack continues to grow during the month of March at the high elevations of the Tetons before peaking during the second week of April on average. But so far this March, the trend is heading in the wrong direction.
Surprisingly enough, temperatures in the Jackson Hole valley are running 4-7º F colder than average halfway through the month. This has delayed the melting process in the valley somewhat, though after a couple of warm days early this week, that is changing fast.
Across the higher elevations, the temperature at the Jackson Hole Mountain Resort summit has been right around average through the first 15 days of the month, but the lack of snow has led to a slow decline in the snowpack. So far this month, the Rendezvous Bowl Plot at JHMR has only recorded four inches of snow and we’re already halfway through the month. Average snowfall for the month of March is 66 inches.
The table below shows current snow depths as of March 15 at weather stations across the Teton Range and Jackson Hole Valley. Most mountain locations above 9,000 feet are 91-98% of average, while lower elevation areas are 75-90% of average with the base area at JHMR being an outlier.
Fortunately, snowpack values are not significantly below average, but Jackson Hole could certainly use more cool/wet systems in April and May to make up for this dry March in order to slow the rate of snowpack decline and prevent conditions from drying out too quickly.
While the Tetons and Jackson Hole have reversed course so far in March, Central and Eastern Wyoming have also reversed course – but in a different way.
Two significant storms over the past week brought much-needed moisture (and also plenty of travel headaches) to areas east of the Continental Divide. The storm this past weekend was historic as Cheyenne broke its all-time storm total snowfall record with over 30 inches!
The map below shows snowpack relative to average as measured by water content in the snowpack across the major basins of Wyoming. Areas in Central and Eastern Wyoming are much closer to average now compared to the beginning of March.
What about snow chances for Jackson Hole moving forward?Â
The week of March 15 will start out similar to previous weeks – mostly dry with scattered flurries on Tuesday as another storm passes south of the area. The difference this time is that temperatures will not cool off as much compared to last week. As a result, the snowpack in the Town of Jackson should start to disappear rather quickly.
However, snowfall potential is finally increasing for late in the week and early next week. A storm is projected to arrive on Friday night and Saturday with moderate snowfall totals expected in the Tetons. It may be a stretch to call it “powder day worthy” but that’s not out of the question yet if the storm comes together just right.
Warm temperatures at the onset of this storm will likely result in precipitation starting as rain in the valley on Friday night before eventually changing to snow by early Saturday morning.
Another storm is possible next Monday (March 22), though it’s too early to have much of an idea of snowfall potential. Neither of these storms are likely to be anything like the storms we saw in February, but at the very least, the Tetons have a chance of picking up some meaningful snow for the first time this month (save for an isolated 8″ day at Targhee last week).
Stay tuned to our Daily Weather Reports over the upcoming week for the latest on the upcoming storm systems.
Alan Smith, Meteorologist
Â
Â
