JACKSON, Wyo. – The past week has featured unseasonably mild temperatures with a high of 65º recorded in Jackson on Monday. Back-to-back storms will bring snow to the Tetons on Thursday and Friday, while the lower valley will see mostly rain along with snow mixed in early and late in the day on Friday.
Recent Weather Pattern
Following a wintry blast from October 26-28, the past week has been much milder and drier as high pressure has dominated the pattern over the Western U.S.
After the October 26-28 storm, the main slopes next to the Dreamcatcher Lift at Grand Targhee were covered with ski tracks. But less than a week later, these previously snowy slopes had mostly melted out.
In Jackson, we have had seven straight days with highs in the 50s or 60s, and topped out at a balmy 65º on Monday – tied for the warmest November day since 2010 (it also hit 65º on November 4, 2020).
The average high and low temperatures on November 5 are 46º and 21º for perspective.
The past week has also been mostly dry, though a weak storm did move through on Tuesday. Snow levels stayed above 8,000 feet during this storm, while areas above 9,000 feet picked up 3 inches. In the valley, light rain fell with only 0.04 inches recorded in Jackson.
Upcoming Weather Pattern
The pattern will briefly turn more active from Wednesday night through Friday night a back-to-back storms move through the area.
Neither storm by itself will be exceptionally strong, but it still looks like a decent precipitation event with moderate to heavy snow totals adding up over time across the higher elevations.
On Wednesday night and Thursday, precipitation will primarily stay as rain in the valley (aside from some occasional flakes mixed in) with snow levels hovering around 6,500-7,000 feet.
On Friday morning, snow levels will likely dip to the valley floor with brief/minor accumulations possible, before rising to around 7,000 feet by Friday afternoon. Late in the day and early in the evening on Friday, a cold front will move through with snow levels dipping to the valley floor again as precipitation tapers off.
Snow totals from Wednesday night to Friday night will generally range from 5-10 inches above 9,000 feet and 4-7 inches on Teton Pass, while valley accumulations below 6,500 feet on Friday will range from nothing to an inch in most areas.
Teton County will see winter travel conditions with snowpacked/slushy roads, especially on Thursday morning, Friday morning, and Friday evening. Icing on the roads is also possible from Friday evening into Saturday morning as temperatures drop behind the cold front.
Over the weekend and into early next week, a mild and dry pattern will resume. Temperatures will be chilly on Saturday, before warming up more substantially from Sunday to next Wednesday with highs in the 50s.
Taking a look at the European Ensemble Model snow forecast for the U.S., we can see the snow associated with the Thursday-Friday storm, and an otherwise quiet pattern for the Western U.S., while colder and more active weather shifts into the Eastern U.S.
Looking further out, there are positive signs ahead for skiers and riders.
By late next week (after November 13 or 14), longer-range models are in good agreement that a more active pattern will take hold across the Western U.S., potentially opening the door to more frequent storms for the Tetons.
NOAA’s 8-14 day outlook has a strong signal for above normal precipitation from November 13-19. And while above-normal temperatures are also expected overall, a general cooling trend is expected over time.
Alan Smith, Meteorologist
