JACKSON, Wyo. – During the month of June, Teton County had near-average temperatures and below-average precipitation, despite a wetter finish to the month. The long-range outlook for July favors above-average temperatures and above-average precipitation due to a predicted active monsoon season across the Western U.S.
Recent Weather Pattern
Cooler and wetter conditions prevailed during the final week of June, and while drought conditions are still present heading into the two hottest months of the year, the moisture we saw last week was beneficial, at least in the short term.
After recording a high of 85ºF in Jackson last Wednesday (the highest temperature of the year so far), the pattern initially turned more active on Thursday as a shortwave trough moved through with morning thunderstorms developing across the Tetons.
A stronger low-pressure system then impacted the area over the weekend, bringing showers and thunderstorms along with more widespread and heavier rain. Total rainfall on Saturday ranged from 0.3 to 1.3 inches across Teton County, including 0.44 inches in Jackson. Hail also fell and accumulated on Teton Pass and along the base of the Tetons.
An unseasonably cool airmass also took hold over the weekend. There were three consecutive days in which highs were only in the 50s in Jackson, which is more than 20 degrees below average for this time of year.
After a break in the precipitation on Sunday, wrap-around moisture on the backside of the low-pressure system arrived from the west/northwest on Monday, bringing steady/light precipitation to the area.
Jackson received a modest 0.13 inches of rain, but up to 0.7 inches of precipitation was recorded across the higher elevations.
With a cool airmass in place, snow also fell in the Tetons on Monday. Non-accumulating snow occurred over Teton Pass, while the upper mountain at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort (around 9,500 feet) received 2 inches of snow.
Areas above 10,000 feet in the Tetons likely received several inches of snow, and even as of this writing, fresh snow can still be seen over the higher peaks of the Tetons.
Here is the 7-day weather summary for the town of Jackson:
For perspective, the average high and low temperatures in Jackson on June 1 are 79º and 43º.
June 2026 Review
Despite the active finish to the month, June was drier than average overall, while temperatures were right around average.
In the town of Jackson, temperatures ended up slightly below average, but in other weather stations around the area, temperatures ranged from slightly above to slightly below average.
The town of Jackson received 0.95 inches of rain in June, which is below its 2010-2025 average of 1.32 inches. This was the third consecutive below-average rainfall June in Jackson, but it was wetter compared to the past two Junes.
Most other locations in the area experienced below-average rainfall as well, but given the hit-or-miss nature of summertime convection, there were some areas that did better, such as Jackson Hole Mountain Resort, where 3.30 inches of precipitation was recorded at mid-mountain in June.
Temperatures ended up 0.4 degrees below average in the town of Jackson during June. Believe it or not, this snapped a 16-month streak of above-average monthly temperatures in Jackson (JKNW4 Weather Station, 2010-2025 averages) dating back to January of 2025.
We only had six 80-degree days in Jackson in June of 2026, compared to 13 days in June 2025 and 12 days in June 2026.
There were also six days with below-freezing morning lows in Jackson, but they all occurred early in the month, with the (likely) final freeze of the season occurring on June 12.
June 2026 Summary for the Town of Jackson:
Here is the water year summary by month in Jackson since October 1. Despite June being a relatively cooler month compared to average, temperatures for the water year as a whole are well above average thanks to an abnormally mild winter.
Believe it or not, we are actually running about 2 inches above average in terms of precipitation in the town of Jackson since October 1st.
But this is almost entirely a result of the extremely wet December we had, as only 3 of the past 9 individual months have been wetter than average.
Many other areas in the surrounding mountains are about 5-10% below average for water year precipitation. This may not seem that bad considering the winter we had, and it shows how the warm temperatures negatively impacted our snowpack more than precipitation.
Upcoming Weather Pattern
The first few days of July will feature comfortable and slightly below-average temperatures, while a series of Pacific disturbances will result in daily rounds of scattered afternoon thunderstorms from Wednesday through Friday.
Storms will be fast-moving in this pattern, and moisture levels will not be overly impressive. Therefore, most storms will produce brief and light rainfall, but stronger storms could produce brief heavy rain and small hail.
Locally strong outflow winds (40-50 mph gusts) will also be possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms in this pattern.
Conditions will dry out for the Fourth of July on Saturday, with highs warming up into the low 80s in the valley (close to average).
From Sunday through early next week, a more substantial warm-up is expected with highs reaching the mid 80s most days.
Another series of Pacific disturbances are projected to track across the Northern Rockies, which will result in at least a chance of afternoon thunderstorms on many days in this pattern. However, widespread meaningful rain is not expected in this pattern.
Instead, we are looking at hit-or-miss rainfall (generally light) from storms over the next week, which may add up to modest amounts over time in some areas.
The image below is a 7-day rainfall projection from the European Ensemble Model, which represents the average of 50 simulations of this model.
July 2026 Outlook
July is the hottest and driest month of the year on average in Jackson Hole, though our mid-summer weather tends to be much more comfortable than most of the country thanks to cool nights and lower relative humidity.
The average high temperature in Jackson in July is 82.7ºF and the average low temperature is 44.1ºF. Early in the month, average highs are in the upper 70s, while late in the month, average highs are in the mid 80s.
In the past 16 years, we have seen temperatures as high as 93ºF (in 2021, 2022, and 2023) and as low as 32ºF (in 2015). Freezes are rare in Jackson in July, while 90ºF high temperatures typically occur on a few days each July.
Average rainfall in July in Jackson is 0.81 inches, making it the driest month of the year and the only month of the year in which average precipitation is less than an inch.
Organized low pressure systems that bring widespread precipitation are rare in July as the polar jet stream lifts well northward into Canada during the middle of the summer.
Most of our rainfall in July typically comes from thunderstorms, which are hit-or-miss in nature and can lead to large variations in rainfall, both geographically and from year to year.
Last year, for instance, Jackson received 1.21 inches of rain in July, and Jackson Hole Mountain Resort received 2.38 inches thanks to localized heavy thunderstorms, but other areas of Teton County experienced a much drier July.
Over the past 5 years (the timeframe for which reliable historical lightning data is available), July was the second most active thunderstorm month of the year in the Tetons, with an average of 10.2 thunderstorm days, just slightly behind August.
The two most notable lightning strike accidents on the Grand Teton in modern times both occurred in July. In other words, it’s important to pay close attention to weather forecasts and current weather conditions when hiking, climbing, and recreating in the Tetons at this time of year.
For July of 2026, we are expecting warmer than average but also wetter than average conditions, as long-range models as well as historical analogs for strong El Niño summers both hint at a more active than usual summer monsoon season across the Central Rockies, including Western Wyoming.
The North American Monsoon is a circulation of subtropical moisture that develops over Mexico and the Southwest U.S. every summer, fueling terrain-driven afternoon thunderstorms.
Monsoon moisture periodically pushes far enough north to reach the Tetons in July and August, leading to an uptick in thunderstorms and occasionally meaningful rainfall, depending on the duration and intensity of these “moisture surges”.
During the first 10 days or so of July 2026, thunderstorms and rain chances are likely to come from Pacific disturbances tracking across the Northern Rockies. But long-range models remain bullish regarding the potential for a stronger monsoon developing around mid-month, with higher potential for moisture surges into our area during mid to late July.
That means we should expect more thunderstorms and more rain than we see in a “normal” July if this long-range outlook comes to fruition.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out for our area. On the one hand, we could use the summer moisture given the ongoing drought, and stronger and more sustained monsoon surges could help to counteract the growing summer fire danger.
But on the other hand, if we only see fringe levels of moisture reach our area with “dry” thunderstorms, gusty winds, above-average temperatures, and a lack of meaningful rain, that would do more harm than good in terms of fire danger.
Alan Smith, Meteorologist
