JACKSON, Wyo. — Winter conditions will return to Jackson this week after last week’s early spring thaw. A storm will bring a round of much-needed snow, but also difficult travel conditions, to the Tetons on Tuesday followed by unseasonably cold temperatures from Wednesday through Friday.

A Winter Storm Warning is currently in effect for Teton County from 11 p.m. Monday through 5 p.m. Wednesday (more on that in the discussion below).

February 28 – March 6 Recap

Jackson Hole saw its first taste of spring last week on the heels of a cold February. Temperatures rose into the 50s in the town of Jackson over three consecutive days and came close on two other days, before cooling off significantly over the weekend.

The warm-up resulted in significant melting in town and across the Jackson Hole Valley. The snow depth in Jackson decreased from 13 inches to 5 inches over the past week, though melting came to a halt over the weekend as much colder air arrived.

Jackson’s warmest temperature during the past week was 57ºF on March 2 and the coldest temperature during the past week was 3ºF this morning (Monday, March 7).

The warmest day of the past week in the mountains was on March 3 when high temperatures at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort reached 36ºF at 10,400 feet, 43ºF at 9,400 feet and 47ºF at 8,100 feet. However, temperatures dipped below zero above 9,000 feet on Monday morning.

The warm-up last week followed by the weekend cool down resulted in less than ideal skiing conditions with crusty/icy conditions prevalent.

Light snow did arrive on Saturday and Sunday, but the storm was unimpressive for our area with new snow totals over 48 hours ranging from 2-4 inches in the Tetons and a trace to a half-inch in the Jackson Hole Valley.

The snow depth at Jackson Hole’s Rendezvous Bowl Plot (9,580 feet) is 70 inches, which is tied with 2010 for the lowest snow depth on this date since 2001. Snowpack in the Teton Range as a whole is 69-72% of average as of March 7.

Forecast for Monday (3/7) to Sunday (3/13)

Mostly sunny skies and chilly temperatures will prevail on Monday with highs topping out near 30 in the valley.

A storm will then approach from the north on Monday night and Tuesday along with a late-season arctic cold front that will usher in well-below-average temperatures in the days to follow.

Light snow showers will arrive from the northwest on Monday evening with light accumulations confined to the mid to higher elevations of the Tetons overnight. The Jackson Hole side of the Tetons will see 1-2 inches overnight while Targhee and the western slopes could see higher amounts as this initial snowfall will largely be terrain-driven.

Snowfall rates will gradually pick up over the course of the day on Tuesday with locally heavy snow bands (aided by the jet stream) possible.

The heaviest snow is then expected from late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening as the cold front approaches from the north. We could see a few hours of intense snowfall rates, making for difficult travel conditions throughout Teton County during the afternoon/evening commute.

Snow totals from Monday night through Wednesday morning will range from 6-13 inches in the Tetons and 2-5 inches in the Jackson Hole Valley. This will be a low-density, powdery snowfall with cold air in place.

On Wednesday, arctic air will overtake the region with lingering cloud cover and light snow showers and flurries. The Teton could pick up anywhere from a dusting to 2 inches of additional snowfall on Wednesday.

Thursday will be very cold for this time of year with highs only in the upper teens in the valley and lows falling well below zero, before a gradual warming trend ensues from Friday afternoon through the weekend.

The next chance of snow will arrive on Sunday as a storm approaches from the Pacific Northwest. However, confidence is low in the storm track as models are in poor agreement on whether or not the storm track will be far enough south for the Tetons to see meaningful snow or if the storm stays too far north.

 

Extended Outlook

Next week’s pattern will be warmer with more seasonal temperatures for mid-March (highs in the 40s likely most days in the valley). The pattern will be relatively active as well with storms moving across the Pacific Northwest and into the Northern Rockies every few days or so.

However, the Tetons are projected to be right on the southern fringe of the storm track for most of next week, meaning it’s a close call between seeing weaker storms with light snowfall versus stronger storms with heavier snowfall.

The answer probably lies somewhere in the middle with at least some snow expected, but with uncertain amounts.

This could also turn out to be a classic springtime pattern with a mix of frontal-based precipitation along with “convective” snow showers, the latter of which occurs when the sun heats up the lower atmosphere and produces scattered but locally heavy snow showers, similar in nature to summer thunderstorms.

Note: I will be out of town traveling for two weeks from March 14-28. My next weekly weather update will be posted when I return on March 29.

Alan Smith, Meteorologist

 

 

 

 

Alan is a professional meteorologist who holds a degree from MSU Denver and writes weather forecasts for Buckrail. He has lived in Jackson full-time since 2015. He is currently a Meteorologist and Operations Manager for OpenSnow, which is a weather forecasting service for skiing and outdoor adventures. At OpenSnow, Alan writes forecasts for the Tetons, Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and North America as a whole.