JACKSON, Wyo. — The cold snap from the previous week is history as of Monday afternoon with a significant warm-up underway. It will feel like spring in Jackson Hole over the next several days, with a continued dry pattern aside from light precipitation on Tuesday. A storm will bring a round of snow to the area on Friday-Saturday followed by a return to colder temperatures this weekend and next week.
February 21-27 Recap
Jackson Hole saw its heaviest storm in about a month and a half on the night of February 20-21 with 10-12 inches reported at JHMR’s upper mountain on the morning of February 21 and 3.8 inches in the Town of Jackson.
An arctic cold front arrived after this storm and arctic air remained in place for nearly a week with unseasonably cold temperatures for late February. The Town of Jackson only recorded a high of 11ºF on February 23, which was a record “low maximum” temperature for the date.
Jackson’s warmest temperature during the past week was 31ºF on February 21, while highs for the rest of the week only ranged from 11ºF to 22ºF. The coldest temperature during the past week was -16ºF on February 24.
This was not an inverted pattern either as temperatures were very cold across the higher elevations as well. The JHMR summit weather station at the top of the tram experienced two days this past week with highs below zero and three days with lows of -10ºF or lower.
The Rendezvous Bowl Plot picked up an additional 3 inches of snow after the storm on 20-21, bringing weekly snow totals to 15 inches. The Jackson weather station picked up an additional 0.4 inches of snow after Monday.
February 2022 Monthly Recap
February has been a big snow month in recent years, but that was far from the case this year. February 2022 ended up being the coldest month in Jackson Hole since 1993 and the least-snowy month for the Teton Range (based on JHMR records) since 1991.
The storm on February 20-21 ended up being the lone bright spot of the month as the Rendezvous Bowl Plot on JHMR’s upper mountain only received 26 inches of total snowfall for the month. This is well below the historical average of 74 inches.
Not only was this the least-snowy February for the Rendezvous Bowl Plot since 1991, but it was also the least-snowy of any winter month (December-March) since March 2007, when only 16 inches was recorded.
The Town of Jackson received 4.8 inches of snow in February. This is well below the average of 13.6 inches, but also greater than what fell in 2016 (3 inches) and 2015 (3.7 inches).
For the season as a whole, the Rendezvous Bowl Plot has received 274 inches of snow since October 1, which is below the average for the date of 323 inches.
The Town of Jackson has received 44.7 inches of snow since October 1, which is also below the season-to-date average of 65.2 inches.
Temperatures for the month of February were well-below average for the second month in a row with temperatures in the Town of Jackson running 5.1 degrees below the historical average for February. In fact, this was tied with 2020 for the coldest February in Jackson since 1993.
The average high for February 2022 in the Town of Jackson was 29.9ºF and the average low was 3.0ºF. We did see some milder weather during the middle two weeks of February with several days with highs in the 40s. The high temperature for the month was 46ºF on February 14.
The first week of February and the last week of February were well-below average, however. The coldest temperature of the month was -16 degrees on February 24.
The inversions that were common in January were much less pronounced in February, as it was a cold month across all elevations. Temperatures at the JHMR summit weather station at the top of the tram ended up being 5.8 degrees colder than average.
In terms of snowpack (the amount of snow on the ground at a given time) in the Tetons, we are now at 72-78% of average above 8,000 feet, depending on the exact location. Snowpack typically increases steadily over the course of the winter but has essentially flat-lined since early January.
Due to consistently cold temperatures, snow depth in the Town of Jackson remains right around average, despite being well below average elsewhere.
Forecast for Monday (2/28) to Sunday (3/6)
We’re getting our first taste of spring this week as a much warmer airmass with origins in the South Pacific has arrived.
Breezy winds associated with the warm air surged quickly eroded a weak inversion on Monday morning, and the Town of Jackson saw a rapid temperature rise of 19ºF to 41ºF in only one hour and a rise from 30ºF to 41ºF in only 15 minutes.
So far, the high temperature in Jackson on Monday afternoon has reached 48ºF, making this the warmest day of 2022 so far.
A plume of significant moisture with origins near Hawaii known as an atmospheric river (or more informally, a “Pineapple Express”) is impacting the Northwest with heavy rain and rising snow levels early this week.
A little bit of moisture on the southern fringe of this feature will move into the Tetons late Monday night and Tuesday, producing more clouds, gusty winds and possibly some light showers.
Due to the warm air in place, any showers we receive will likely be in the form of rain in the valley with snow levels as high as 7,000 feet. Any snow accumulations across the higher elevations will be very light, maybe an inch or so.
On Wednesday and Thursday, dry and breezy conditions will prevail along with springlike temperatures with highs reaching the low 50s in the valley under a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures in the mountains will warm up well above freezing with spring skiing conditions expected.
A storm will move across the Tetons late this week with snow likely arriving sometime on Friday afternoon or evening and snow chances continuing into Saturday as well. This storm will likely be on the weaker side with light to moderate snow, but at least it’s something.
A cold front will also arrive with this storm, signaling the end to our early taste of spring. Much colder air will arrive over the weekend with a downward trend in temperatures through Sunday.
There’s also a chance we could see some lingering clouds and light snow showers/flurries on Sunday, but any additional accumulations will be light.
Extended Outlook
The second week of March is likely to be colder than average and much colder than this week, but also not as cold as last week. Highs most days are projected to reach the upper 20s to low 30s in the valley, with greater fluctuations possible on any given day.
The pattern also looks to be somewhat unsettled with more frequent snow chances expected compared to weeks and months, but the pattern also does not look conducive to significant snowfall as most of the energy moving into the Western U.S. is projected to quickly dive from north to south toward the Four Corners region.
Alan Smith, Meteorologist
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