JACKSON, Wyo. — Over the past 10 days, Jackson Hole has experienced a transition back into an active and snowy pattern after a dry start to the month. However, a significant warm-up also occurred on Sunday and Monday leading to a valley thaw along with light rain, while new snow in the mountains has been heavy and wet.
The temperature has been in the low 40s throughout the day on Monday with the town of Jackson weather station recording a high of 45 on Monday afternoon. It looks like we will come up just shy of setting a record high for the date, which was 46 set back in 1941.
Despite the recent warmth, the pattern has been much more active since December 10, following an unusually dry start to the month. Since December 10, the Rendezvous Bowl has received 48 inches (4 feet of snow) of snow after receiving almost no snow during the first 10 days of December.
There haven’t been any single big storms recently, rather a consistent pattern of moderate storms nearly every day that have added up nicely. Snowpack in the Tetons was about 75% of average on December 10, but now is 96% of average. Skiing conditions have improved significantly over the past week.
Holiday Weather Outlook and Christmas Day Weather Stats
One last round of snow will move through on Tuesday along with a strong cold front that will quickly put an end to our mild temperatures. Heavy snow will likely develop for a couple of hours on Tuesday morning behind the front, with high temperatures occurring in the morning and falling throughout the day.
Snow showers will linger past the main wave through Tuesday afternoon as well with new snow amounts ranging from 4-7 inches in the Tetons and 1-3 inches in the valley.
Here is the projected radar for 8 a.m. on Tuesday.
After this storm, conditions will dry out from Wednesday through Friday. In fact, this will be the first time since 2013 that we will not have any new snow on Christmas morning (based on 24-hour reports).
During this dry spell, temperatures are going to be very cold with highs struggling to reach the teens in the valley and lows falling below zero. An inversion will develop on Thursday and Friday, so while there won’t be any fresh powder to ski on Christmas Day, at least you can hit the slopes where temperatures will be warmer above the inversion layer
This dry spell will not last nearly as long as the one we had in early December. The next storm is expected to arrive on Saturday, December 26, so there will be opportunities to enjoy some fresh snow over the holiday weekend after all.
For weather stat geeks, here is a list of our current streak of Christmas morning snow reports from Jackson Hole’s Rendezvous Bowl Plot that will come to an end this year. It was a good run while it lasted!
Christmas Morning Snow Streak (JHMR Rendezvous Bowl Plot):
- 2019 – 5 inches
- 2018 – 8 inches
- 2017 – 8 inches
- 2016 – 8 inches
- 2015 – 4 inches
- 2014 – 11 inches
The snowiest Christmas Day on record was in 2008 when the Rendezvous Bowl Plot recorded 26 inches of snow in 24 hours and the town of Jackson recorded 13 inches of snow in 24 hours. This was part of a massive storm cycle that sadly resulted in a number of avalanche incidents in the days to follow.
The coldest Christmas Day on record in Jackson was in 1952 when the low dipped to -32 and the high only reached -9. The warmest Christmas Day on record was just two years earlier in 1950 when the high topped out at 47.
Weather Outlook between Christmas and New Year’s
The good news for snow lovers is that medium to long range models have been trending toward a relatively active pattern developing between Christmas and New Year’s. It’s too early to say whether or not we see significant snowfall, but at the very least we should see frequent snow chances with no extended dry spells.
