New analysis reflects discussions with pro-feeding Wyoming, and the particulars will likely resemble the proposal expected soon from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife.
by Mike Koshmrl, WyoFile
There’s no saying what exactly the National Elk Refuge will propose when it rolls out its long-awaited plan detailing how it will handle a deadly disease forecasted to drastically reduce Jackson Hole elk populations, crushing hunting opportunities in the process.
But a new scientific analysis by the U.S. Geological Survey provides a first glimpse of likely components in the refuge’s “preferred” option for dealing with chronic wasting disease on a 25,000-acre federal property where thousands of elk have been fed and unnaturally bunched up since 1912. Specifically, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service may roll out a proposal that calls for perpetual feeding of the Jackson Bison Herd, a species that’s immune to CWD. For the Jackson Elk Herd, meanwhile, feeding would continue until rates of always-lethal chronic wasting disease reach 7%.
The USGS analysis predicts what will happen if the refuge opts for increased hunting and a 7% CWD threshold for determining when to stop feeding elk. By year 20 of CWD spreading in the Jackson Herd, rates of the disease will reach an estimated 26%. The population will fall as a result, declining 44% to a predicted 6,100 elk in the herd.
Paul Cross, the USGS research biologist who authored the report, described the particulars of so-called “Alternative D” as a “middle ground.” The assessment supplemented an earlier, broader analysis that uses science to help the National Elk Refuge chart the best path forward.
Elk feeding began more than a century ago and has successfully increased winter survival and kept wapiti out of winter haylines, but the practice is considered antiquated, spreads disease, truncates migrations and poses an unprecedented threat to elk populations because of just-arrived CWD, which is always lethal.
The particulars of “Alternative D” were selected based on discussions with wildlife managers, Cross said, naming the National Elk Refuge and Wyoming Game and Fish Department.
Notably, Brian Nesvik, a former Wyoming Game and Fish director, now oversees the poorly resourced Wildlife Refuge System that includes the National Elk Refuge. He was confirmed as the U.S. Fish and Wildlife director in early August.
The forecast for “Alternative D” is more favorable for elk and elk hunters than if the National Elk Refuge goes with unchanged feeding. In the earlier analysis, that prognosis was for CWD to infect 35% of the Jackson Elk Herd, a rate that modeling predicts would slash the population by more than half, down to 5,200 animals.
The modeling assumed starting points of 11,000 elk and 1% CWD prevalence, both higher than the on-the-ground conditions today.
Elk fare similar under “Alternative D” to the herd’s prognosis if the refuge were to stop feeding cold turkey, the analysis shows. But the newly modeled scenario performs better in other respects, Cross said.
“If you don’t feed, then [elk and bison] are going to be in other places more often,” Cross said. “That results in more calls to Wyoming Game and Fish, more complaints, more elk running around with volleyball nets on their head.”
The Fish and Wildlife Service did not authorize National Elk Refuge staff to give an interview for this story.
It’s not entirely clear when the refuge will release its final Bison and Elk Management Plan, although its website says this fall. The current plan dates to 2007, and mostly hasn’t worked to achieve one of its major goals: reducing elk feeding by 50%. It’s also unclear how much the “preferred alternative” in the forthcoming environmental impact statement will differ from the “Alternative D” assessed by USGS.
“They’ve changed multiple times already,” Cross said. “I don’t know if conversations are ongoing or not.”
There are elements of “Alternative D” that the Wyoming Game and Fish Department has supported, said Brad Hovinga, who supervises the agency’s Jackson Region.
“We were definitely supportive of continued feeding of bison,” Hovinga said.
There are still ongoing discussions about chronic wasting disease thresholds that could idle alfalfa trucks on the National Elk Refuge, Hovinga said. Game and Fish in a general sense will be pushing for an option that’s “more in line” with its state-level feedground management plan, he said.
“That’s been our goal all along,” Hovinga said.
Wyoming’s first-ever feedground plan, completed in 2024, does not compel reform or call for closing any feedgrounds, though it allows for halting feeding so long as consensus is reached with traditionally pro-feeding parties, like ranchers and hunting outfitters.
The chronic wasting disease threshold for stopping elk feeding included in the recent analysis was not chosen arbitrarily, Cross said. The threshold was based on 2016 research. That study concluded that animals gathered on the National Elk Refuge will be pushed into a state of population decline once CWD prevalence in cows reaches 7%.
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