Wildflowers on the backside of Snow King (June 25, 2023).

A ridge of high pressure will build into the area during the first few days of July, which will likely result in our first 80-degree temperatures this year. The pattern will also dry out a bit compared to recent weeks, though afternoon thunderstorms can still be expected from time to time.

Recent Weather Conditions

June has been a wet month with cooler-than-average daytime temperatures, but we have seen plenty of sunny periods over the past week as well with overall pleasant conditions for outdoor activities.

The coolest and wettest day over the past week occurred on Friday, June 23 when off-and-on showers and thunderstorms impacted the area throughout the day. Rainfall totals ranged from 0.26-0.55 inches across Teton County, including 0.40 inches in the Town of Jackson.

Recent wet conditions on the heels of a snowy winter have kept the hillsides green across the region, while wildflowers continue to put on a good show across the low to mid-elevations.

 

Wildflowers on the backside of Snow King (June 25, 2023).

 

Friday turned out to be an active day statewide with a severe thunderstorm outbreak occurring east of the Continental Divide. This outbreak resulted in instances of large hail along with a few tornadoes, including a tornado that hit a coal mine north of Casper, injuring eight people.

Warmer and drier conditions prevailed from Saturday through Monday with only isolated showers and thunderstorms, while Tuesday afternoon and evening turned wet with more widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Rainfall totals on Tuesday, June 27 ranged from 0.12 to 0.34 inches across Southern Teton County (south of the airport) including 0.23 inches in the Town of Jackson, with lighter totals north of the airport. Teton Valley, Idaho saw heavier rainfall amounts as well, ranging from 0.30 to 0.40 inches.

For the month of June, the Town of Jackson has now received 2.57 inches of rain, which is well above the historical average of 1.50 inches. This is also Jackson’s wettest June since 2010.

Daytime temperatures have also been on the cooler side of average this month, due to frequent afternoon showers and cloud cover along with a lack of any high pressure ridges. So far, the average high temperature in June 2023 (68.5ºF) is only three degrees warmer than the average high temperature in May 2023 (65.5ºF).

Also, we have yet to hit 80ºF in Jackson this year. We did come close on May 21 with a high of 79ºF, but so far in June, the highest temperature we have seen is 77ºF.

The average first 80ºF day in Jackson is on June 8, so we are running well behind schedule this year. However, our first 80ºF day is forecasted to occur this weekend.

 

Upcoming Weather Pattern

A trough of low pressure will slowly work its way across the Western U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, keeping us under an unsettled weather pattern with below-average temperatures.

Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will top out in the 70-73ºF range in the Town of Jackson. The average high for the end of June is in the upper 70s.

Isolated thunderstorms can also be expected on Wednesday afternoon and evening, favoring the higher terrain, while showers and thunderstorms should be a bit more numerous on Thursday.

Moisture levels on Wednesday and Thursday will not be as high compared to Tuesday, and as a result, storms will generally produce light to briefly moderate rainfall. However, dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning will be possible with any thunderstorms, as well as gusty winds.

From Friday through Sunday, a ridge of high pressure will build over the Intermountain West and will nudge its way into Jackson Hole from the west and southwest, resulting in warmer temperatures and drier conditions.

 

 

High temperatures will reach the mid 70s in the Jackson Hole Valley on Friday, then we will have a good chance of topping 80ºF for the first time this year on Saturday and Sunday.

An afternoon thunderstorm couldn’t entirely be ruled out over the Tetons on any given day from Friday through Sunday, but the odds are low. However, a disturbance moving across Montana will result in a comparatively better chance of thunderstorms this weekend across Yellowstone as well as the Absaroka Range and points north and east.

Heading into next week, including the Fourth of July on Tuesday, afternoon thunderstorm chances will increase in response to a series of weaker disturbances projected to arrive from the west. Rainfall is expected to be light and spotty in this pattern, but lightning will still be a threat during the afternoon hours.

Temperatures are not expected to change much during the first half of next week (July 3-5) with highs generally ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s each day – right around average for the beginning of July.

Thunderstorm coverage and rainfall will be greater east of the Continental Divide across Central and Eastern Wyoming throughout the next week, as richer moisture originating from the Gulf of Mexico will be in place.

 

 

Looking further out, a seasonal pattern is expected to remain in place through the end of next week with near-average temperatures (80ºF-ish highs), along with afternoon thunderstorm chances and light/spotty rainfall.

Alan Smith, Meteorologist

Alan is a professional meteorologist who holds a degree from MSU Denver and writes weather forecasts for Buckrail. He has lived in Jackson full-time since 2015. He is currently a Meteorologist and Operations Manager for OpenSnow, which is a weather forecasting service for skiing and outdoor adventures. At OpenSnow, Alan writes forecasts for the Tetons, Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and North America as a whole.