Dry, windy, and smoky conditions can be expected on Friday as a disturbance passes north of the area. The source of the smoke will be from wildfire activity in Northern/Central Idaho, and west/northwest winds aloft will transport this smoke into Northwest Wyoming.

We’ve already noticed more smoke and haze in Jackson Hole since Thursday, but the smoke is likely to become thicker and more noticeable on Friday afternoon. As of early Friday morning, air quality is in the “Moderate” category but could worsen on Friday afternoon.

To monitor local air quality, bookmark the site purpleair.com. This is a valuable resource to determine whether or not you should exercise outdoors or leave your windows open in your home. Particulate matter values of under 100 are generally considered acceptable, while values of over 100 are considered unhealthy.

Smoke aside, high temperatures on Friday will reach the mid to upper 80s with west/southwest winds at the surface gusting to 30-40 mph in the afternoon. Fire danger will remain elevated due to the dry and windy conditions and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9 p.m. Friday.

A lightning-triggered fire was discovered near Pacific Creek on Thursday, in the Teton Wilderness just east of Grand Teton National Park. Firefighters determined that it has low spread potential, so hopefully, it won’t end up being much of an issue, but dry and windy conditions forecasted on Friday (and also next week) aren’t ideal.

A weak cold front will arrive late Friday afternoon, but we won’t notice much other than a slight drop in low temperatures on Saturday morning. Temperatures will then rebound back into the upper 80s for highs on Saturday afternoon, but winds will be lighter.

On Sunday, high pressure will strengthen over the Central Rockies and hot temperatures are expected as a result. Highs on Sunday are expected to reach the low 90s in the valley.

Similar temperatures are expected on Monday, and an approaching disturbance will result in gusty winds and a slight chance of dry thunderstorms. As a result, fire danger will be on the rise once again.

Varying degrees of smoke and haze are likely through the weekend and early next week as prevailing winds aloft from the west/northwest will favor smoke transport from Idaho fires into Northwest Wyoming.

Heading into the middle of next week, a series of disturbances passing to the north will continue to result in breezy afternoon winds and only slightly cooler temperatures. Remnant monsoonal moisture interacting with these disturbances will result in the potential for dry thunderstorms – unfortunately, the type of storms that produce little rainfall and have a better chance of starting fires.

Rain chances look minimal through about July 20, then long-range models continue to project an increase in monsoonal moisture from the south around or after July 20, which could potentially bring some temporary relief to the hot/dry/smoky conditions. Of course, that’s still more than 10 days out, so no guarantees.

Alan Smith, Meteorologist

 

 

 

Alan is a professional meteorologist who holds a degree from MSU Denver and writes weather forecasts for Buckrail. He has lived in Jackson full-time since 2015. He is currently a Meteorologist and Operations Manager for OpenSnow, which is a weather forecasting service for skiing and outdoor adventures. At OpenSnow, Alan writes forecasts for the Tetons, Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and North America as a whole.