High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the next week and beyond, resulting in dry conditions. However, weak disturbances passing to our north will result in gusty winds while also keeping temperatures near seasonal levels for mid-July.
Recent Weather Summary
Over the past week or so, we have gone through a transition from an active spring/early summer for showers and thunderstorms to a much drier pattern. Sunny skies with gusty winds and minimal cloud cover have prevailed over the past three days.
Prior to our dry spell, we did experience a few active thunderstorm days late last week and over the weekend. Most areas only received light rainfall at best, but there were some isolated pockets of heavy rain at times.
The most notable example was on Saturday, July 8, when a strong thunderstorm developed over Victor and stalled for nearly two hours, producing heavy rain and accumulating hail.
The National Weather Service in Pocatello issued a Flash Flood Warning for Victor as a result of this storm, based on Doppler radar estimates which indicated 1.5 to 3 inches of rain had fallen. There was no first-hand data to confirm rainfall amounts, however, due to a lack of rain gauges in this area.
On the other hand, Jackson has only received a measly 0.10 inches of rain so far during the month of July, resulting from a handful of very brief downpours.
Temperatures have been noticeably warmer lately following a cooler-than-average second half of June. But in reality, we have been close to seasonal levels so far this month as average highs in July are in the low 80s.
Our hottest day during the past week (and so far this summer) was on Monday when we hit 86ºF in Jackson, but the past two days have been a little cooler with highs in the low 80s.
Upcoming Weather Pattern
Sunny, dry, and warm weather will continue over the next week as high pressure remains in place across the Western U.S. Frequent disturbances will be passing to our north and east during the second half of this week and over the weekend, and this will result in breezy conditions most days.
Thunderstorm-free conditions can be expected across the Tetons and Jackson Hole from at least Wednesday through Sunday (July 16), while occasional isolated thunderstorms will be possible in Yellowstone (mainly the northern section of the park) and also east of the Continental Divide.
High temperatures from Wednesday through Friday will reach the low 80s each day. We will start to warm up a bit over the weekend as high pressure strengthens with highs in the mid 80s on Saturday and upper 80s on Sunday and Monday.
Sunday and Monday will be the two hottest days over the next week, then we will cool off a little bit on Tuesday and during the middle part of next week as a stronger disturbance moves across the Northern Rockies.
There is also an outside chance we could see some isolated thunderstorms develop across the Tetons and Jackson Hole around the Monday-Tuesday timeframe as this disturbance approaches.
However, confidence is low as moisture looks marginal at best. If we do see any storms develop early next week, they will only produce brief light rain at the most, with cloud-to-ground lightning and strong winds posing the greatest threats.
The rainfall outlook over the next week is minimal across the Jackson Hole area, and across most of the Western U.S. as the North American Monsoon is only just now getting going over Mexico and has yet to send much moisture into the Western U.S.
Extended Outlook
Medium to long-range models are hinting that we could experience our hottest temperatures of the summer so far during the second half of next week and into the weekend of July 22-23 as high pressure strengthens across the Western U.S.
The outlook continues to look dry through the weekend of July 22-23. After that, there are some hints that moisture from the still-emerging North American Monsoon (a seasonal circulation that favors showers & thunderstorms over the Southwest U.S.) could eventually work its way northward into our area toward the end of July, but confidence is low.
Alan Smith, Meteorologist
