JACKSON, Wyo. – Following a two-week period with heavy snowfall and cold temperatures, we have trended back into a mild winter pattern since January 18. Temperatures have been well above average with light snow across the higher elevations, while the valley has experienced periods of light rain mixed with snow.
Recent Weather Conditions
From January 4-18, we saw our most notable stretch of winter weather this season with frequent snowfall and cold temperatures. Skiing conditions finally began to take shape across the higher elevations, while even the valley received significant snow accumulations.
The last storm on January 17-18 came in on the warmer and denser side with snow totals ranging from 10-20 inches in the Tetons and 6-9 inches in the valley. Strong winds also accompanied this storm.
From January 18-24, much warmer air arrived from the Pacific, scouring out the remnants of arctic air that descended upon the region a few days prior.
The trend over the past week has been for storms to make landfall in California, but weaken and split apart as they do so. The result has been frequent heavy cloud cover in Jackson Hole with periods of light snow, and even some rain in the lower valley. Conditions have taken on more of a Pacific Northwest feel – i.e. mild and cloudy.
Snowfall across the higher elevations was very light from January 19-22, but on Tuesday (January 23), the higher elevations of the Tetons did pick up 2-4 inches of new snow.
Since January 18, high temperatures in the town of Jackson have ranged from 37ºF to 44ºF each day and low temperatures have ranged from 25ºF to 29ºF. This is well above average, as our low temperatures during this stretch have been right around where our average high temperatures are for this time of year.
As of January 17, temperatures for the month of January were running 4.5ºF below average in the town of Jackson. However, temperatures are now running 1.2ºF above average for the month following the previous seven days of warmth.
For the month of January, the Rendezvous Bowl Plot at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort has received 73 inches of snow and the Raymer Plot has received 77 inches of snow. The 30-year snowfall average for January at the Rendezvous Bowl Plot is 90 inches, so we are going to come up short of this by the end of the month.
Grand Targhee has received 85 inches of snow this month, which is just above its average January snowfall of 82 inches (based on a shorter period of record dating back to 2008).
The town of Jackson has received 25 inches of snow in January (Cocorahs TT-WY-40), and this is actually above the long-term average of 18 inches. The depth of snow on the ground in the valley is below average, however.
Overall, snowpack is about 81% of average in the Greater Teton Region, which is still a significant improvement from a few weeks ago.
Upcoming Weather Pattern
We are not expecting any significant changes back to typical winter conditions for at least another week.
On Wednesday and Thursday, we will remain in an unsettled pattern with light snow showers on Wednesday giving way to more widespread snow showers on Thursday as a stronger disturbance arrives.
The Tetons will pick up an additional 3-6 inches of snow above 9,000 feet from Wednesday through Friday AM. Valley accumulations will range from a trace to an inch in Jackson, and a half-inch to 2 inches west of the Snake River and north of the airport, with melting occuring during the afternoons in the valley due to warm temperatures.
Starting on Friday, we will begin to dry out as high pressure builds over the Intermountain West. The sun should make an appearance on Friday, then skies will become mostly cloudy again on Saturday and Sunday as remnants of moisture from Pacific Northwest storms reach our area.
Early next week, moisture will decrease and skies will become mostly sunny from about Monday (Jan 29) to Wednesday (Jan 31). Temperatures will remain above average through the end of the month with highs in the 30s each day in the valley, possibly sneaking into the low 40s at times.
Here is a snowfall projection over the next 7 days, representing the average of 50 simulations of the European weather model. All of the snowfall for Western Wyoming will occur on Wednesday-Thursday of this week.
Heading into the first couple of days of February, high pressure is expected to break down as a storm moves into the Western U.S. However, it’s unclear at this time whether or not we will see any meaningful snow or if the storm will miss us to the south. Temperatures are expected to trend colder heading into early February, however.
Alan Smith, Meteorologist
