JACKSON, Wyo. – The past week has featured our first stretch of spring-like conditions with sunny skies and daily melt/freeze cycles. The pattern will turn more unsettled late this week with mild temperatures initially, but the final week of March is looking colder and snowier.
Recent Weather Conditions
The past seven days have been beautiful and sunny across the Tetons and spring skiing conditions have been in full effect with sunny days and cold nights.
High temperatures have been routinely reaching the 40s in the Tetons (7,000-9,500 foot range) which has quickly softened up the snow on south and east-facing slopes each day.
While the valley have experienced a similar melt/freeze cycle, it has not been as warm as forecast most days as a weak inversion has remained in place with highs in the low to mid 40s over the past week.
Afternoon inversions are typically less common by this point in the season, but the deep valley snowpack in combination with a stable atmosphere (associated with high pressure) is likely playing a role here and keeping temperatures colder.
Deep snow cover in flat valley areas helps to deflect solar radiation back into the atmosphere, keeping temperatures at the surface colder than they would otherwise be with little to no snow cover.
For the month of March as a whole, temperatures are running 4.3ºF colder than average in the town of Jackson so far.
Snowfall and Snowpack Update
The first week of March was exceptionally snowy, but we have been much drier since then with only some light snowfall recorded from March 11-14.
We have received 31.2 inches of snow so far this month in the town of Jackson, nearly all of which fell in the first seven days of the month. We are still 1.6 inches short of the all-time monthly snowfall record for March of 32.8 inches, and we’ll have several chances to break this record during the final week of the month.
The Rendezvous Bowl Plot at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort (elevation 9,580 feet) has received 73 inches of snow so far this month. While impressive, we are unlikely to challenge the March snowfall record of 154 inches set in 2011, and we are still well behind March 2023 when this location received 116 inches of snow.
In terms of snowpack, we are now 98% of average in the Upper Snake River Basin compared to 103% of average at this time last week. We are likely to end up right around average in terms of snowpack by April 1.
In the Lower Jackson Hole Valley, snowpack is above-average with a current snow depth of 18 inches in the town of Jackson with only gradual melting over the past week. Average snow depth for the date is 9 inches, so we are about double of average.
Also, the average snowpack melt-off date in Jackson in on March 24, so we will be melting out much later than average in town this year – most likely not until early April. Last year was one of the latest melt-outs on record in Jackson (April 22), so it’s unlikely we will make it that long with snow cover in town this year.
Upcoming Weather Pattern
After one final sunny and mild day on Wednesday, the pattern will gradually turn more unsettled from Thursday through Sunday, with a shift to more wintry conditions expected during the week of March 25-31.
On Thursday, high pressure will break down and a weak disturbance will move through from the west, resulting in scattered snow showers in the Tetons and scattered rain showers in the valleys (below 7,000 feet).
These showers will be hit-or-miss in nature with light and spotty snow amounts across the higher terrain.
On Friday, we will see a break in the pattern with partly cloudy skies and only a chance of isolated light showers.
On Saturday, a somewhat stronger but still relatively weak storm will move through. More widespread snow showers are expected across the Tetons with rain showers below 7,000 feet.
A cold front will move through sometime on Saturday afternoon/evening, which could result in a short-lived period of heavier and more widespread snowfall in the Tetons, but snow totals will likely only be a few inches or so above 8,000 feet.
On Sunday, a colder airmass will take hold with scattered snow showers possible at all elevations, though accumulation potential will be limited in the valley.
High temperatures will challenge or exceed the 50-degree mark in Jackson and the lower valley from Thursday to Saturday. On Sunday, highs will only reach the upper 30s as a colder airmass takes hold.
During the week of March 25, the jet stream will be better positioned from the Pacific Ocean into the Central/Northern Rockies, which could open the door to stronger storms.
The first storm in this pattern looks to arrive on Monday night and Tuesday (March 26) and could potentially bring heavier snowfall compared to prior days, with the caveat that this is the better part of a week away.
Here is a snowfall projection from multiple simulations of the European weather model over the next seven days, indicating the potential for decent snow totals to add up over time across the higher elevations by next Wednesday.
Beyond the middle of next week, an active pattern is expected to continue through the end of the month with additional snow chances along with below-average temperatures for late March with highs in the 30s in the valley most days.
We are getting late enough in the year that valley accumulations are typically lighter and more inconsistent, and often confined to the overnight and morning hours when temperatures are coldest and when there is a lack of solar radiation (the sun is very strong at this time of year).
We will likely see valley snow accumulations at times next week, but climatologically speaking, major snow events (>6 inches) in town are unlikely at this time of year.
But if you’re hoping to catch some late-season powder turns on the slopes, then you may be in luck with multiple snow opportunities expected next week (March 25-31).
Alan Smith, Meteorologist
