JACKSON, Wyo. — A multi-day storm cycle will impact Jackson Hole later this week with significant snowfall expected. Snow will fall each day from Tuesday through Saturday with the heaviest snow falling from Wednesday night through Friday night.
A low-pressure system will stall off the coast of California during this time southwesterly flow around this area of low pressure will transport copious amounts of moisture from the Pacific Ocean into Western Wyoming.
This pattern will lead to a massive snow event for the Sierra Nevada Range in California (Tahoe ski resorts look to get buried), and when the Sierras get dumped on via a southwesterly flow that extends in Western Wyoming, typically the Tetons end up receiving heavy snow as well – not as deep as the Sierras, but still plenty enough to deliver powder days on the slopes.
In addition, a persistent storm track out of the southwest along with pulses of atmospheric “energy” will minimize the rain shadow effect over the Jackson Hole Valley, meaning that valley areas and surrounding lower mountains such as Snow King will likely see heavy snowfall as well.
Other than an early heavy snow event in November, it’s been a light winter for snowfall in the valley so far with a settled snow depth of only 6 inches in the Town of Jackson. The break we’ve all had from shoveling more than a dusting of snow will soon be coming to an end.
Snowfall Timing and Forecasted Amounts
A leading-edge disturbance will result in a round of light snow on Tuesday night. This will be an appetizer of what’s to come with 1-3 inches of snow expected for the Tetons and a trace to 2 inches for the valley.
We should see some breaks during the day on Wednesday before the “main event” gets underway on Wednesday evening with periods of moderate to heavy snow expected over the ensuing 48-60 hours through Friday night.
The snow will come in dry and powdery on Wednesday night before trending toward a higher-density snowfall on Thursday and into early Friday as warmer air works its way in from the southwest. A cold front will then arrive on Friday afternoon, with a transition back to low-density powder expected on Friday night.
The early call on snow amounts from Wednesday night through Friday night is for 13-26 inches for the Tetons and 8-16 inches for the Jackson Hole Valley and surrounding hills, with the higher valley totals expected west and north of town as well as on Snow King.
Since we’re still several days away, the snow forecast will likely need to be tweaked moving forward so stay tuned to our daily forecasts (issued by around 10 a.m. each morning) and additional updates as needed. There are still some uncertainties to contend with that could raise or lower the forecast moving forward.
Here are the 5-day breakdowns of snow totals currently expected from Monday through Friday:
Â
While the strongest part of the storm will exit on Friday night, the fun doesn’t end there. A secondary disturbance is projected to arrive on the heels of this storm on Saturday with another round of snow expected. Saturday’s snow will be lower-density and more powdery due to colder air in place.
Skiing conditions at the resorts will be fantastic toward the end of the week and into the weekend at the resorts by the end of the week. Backcountry travelers should be aware of increasing avalanche danger and stay up to date with the Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center.
Difficult driving conditions should be expected from Wednesday night through Saturday morning in particular over the passes and in the valleys with significant snow expected at all elevations. Warmer temperatures on Thursday and Friday could result in some melting on the valley roads as well, with icing becoming a concern on Friday night and Saturday as colder air returns.
The good news is that winds are not expected to be all that strong, though even with moderate winds some areas of blowing snow are likely on the open roads.
More Snow Expected Early Next Week
We should see a brief lull on Sunday, but then another storm is projected to arrive early next week. While this is still a week away, this has the potential to be another strong storm with heavy snowfall possible.
Despite what has felt like a quiet month, the snowpack in the Tetons is currently about 90% of average – which isn’t too far below average thanks in part to a lone strong storm that occurred last week along with a good storm cycle that occurred in early January.
The snow we receive later this week should at least push us close to average in terms of settled snow depths in the mountains. Then, we’ll see what happens on February and March which will determine how “good” (or bad, depending on perspective) of a winter this ends up being overall.
Alan Smith, Meteorologist
