Jackson Hole Weather May 9-15, 2022

JACKSON, Wyo. — An unseasonably cold pattern has taken hold across Northwest Wyoming and snow has been falling down to the valley floor. A cool and unsettled pattern will prevail over the next several days with additional rounds of snow showers expected. We will finally see a transition to a warmer pattern beginning this weekend and continuing into next week.

May 2-8 Recap

Jackson experienced another cooler-than-average week, which has been an ongoing theme since the beginning of April. The week began with valley rain and high elevation snow, then we saw some nice breaks in the middle of the week.

Unsettled weather returned over the weekend along with cooler temperatures, and heavy snow showers have resulted in brief accumulations on the valley floor on Monday morning. The official reporting station in Jackson recorded 0.9 inches of new snow on Monday.

The weather stations in the Tetons operated by the Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center last reported new snow at 5 a.m. on Monday, but a few inches of new snow have likely accumulated above 8,000 feet since then.

Total precipitation over the past seven days has ranged from 0.7-1.3 inches above 9,000 feet in the Tetons and 0.3-0.6 inches below 9,000 feet including the valley floor. Snow totals over the past seven days have ranged from 6-12 inches in the Tetons above 9,000 feet and 1-2 inches in the Jackson Hole Valley.

The current snow depth at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort’s Rendezvous Bowl Plot is 90 inches, compared to an average for the date of 99 inches. Snowpack at the Rendezvous Bowl Plot and the Teton Range and Snake River Basin as a whole is about 90% of average for the date.

The warmest temperature over the past week in Jackson was 64ºF on Thursday, May 5 and the coldest temperature was 26ºF, also on Thursday, May 5. While there were not any notable temperature extremes last week, temperatures were below average on five out of seven days.

Forecast for Monday (5/9) to Sunday (5/15)

A deep trough of low pressure is located over the Western U.S. on Monday, and this has opened the door for unseasonably cold air to arrive from the northwest. Daytime temperatures on Monday are running about 20-25 degrees below average for this time of year.

A potent disturbance arriving from the southwest resulted in heavy snow showers across the Tetons and Jackson Hole on Monday morning. For the remainder of the day on Monday and into early Monday evening, additional snow showers can be expected at times, but snow showers will be more scattered and less widespread compared to earlier.

Most of the snow that accumulated in Jackson on Monday morning has already melted, as should be expected this late in the year, and additional accumulations are not expected on the valley floor. However, road conditions over Teton Pass could become slushy at times under heavier snow showers.

Conditions will dry out later on Monday night and through the day on Tuesday, but scattered clouds and breezy winds can still be expected. Highs on Tuesday will warm up into the low 50s in the valley, which is still cooler than average but warmer than Monday.

On Wednesday, highs will warm up into the upper 50s under a mix of sun and clouds with winds remaining brisk.

A disturbance passing to our south will swing into Central Wyoming on Wednesday night with overnight showers and thunderstorms expected east of the Continental Divide, but this activity will miss Jackson Hole initially.

Later Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, some moisture could wrap around this feature and work its way into the Tetons from the northwest, resulting in a chance of snow showers early Thursday through about midday Thursday. However, this is a fringe-level setup for our area, so there are no guarantees we see anything.

A stronger disturbance will arrive from the west/northwest on Thursday night and Friday with showers developing across the region.

A cold front arriving with this feature will usher in another unseasonably cool airmass, and snow levels are likely to fall to the valley floor as a result and some brief valley accumulations couldn’t be ruled out on Friday morning.

We will finally start to transition out of this cool and unsettled pattern over the weekend. Saturday is looking dry at this point with a mix of sun and clouds and highs warming up into the upper 50s after a chilly start.

On Sunday, a more significant warm-up is likely with increasing sunshine and highs currently expected to peak in the upper 60s in the valley.

Extended Outlook

Next week is looking much warmer with more seasonal to perhaps even above average temperatures expected for most of the week. We will likely see more sunshine compared to recent weeks, but could still see some occasional disturbances bring showers to the area.

Snow levels will also be higher next week when precipitation does occur with rain becoming the dominant precipitation type to at least mid-elevations of the Tetons.

Alan Smith, Meteorologist

Note: I will be traveling next week and will not be posting weekly forecasts on Monday, May 16 or Monday, May 23. I will post a Memorial Day weekend outlook on Thursday, May 26 followed by a weekly weather outlook on Tuesday, May 31.