JACKSON, Wyo. — The Tetons will see periods of snow showers on Monday, then a dry pattern will return with an arctic cold front ushering in the coldest air of the season for during the middle of the week. The outlook for skiers and riders continues to look unfavorable for anything more than occasional light snow.

January 24-30 Weather Recap

Cold and dry conditions were prevalent during the final week of January with a temperature inversion this past weekend resulting in more comfortable temperatures in the mountains and also in Teton Valley (where inversions typically mix out during the afternoons).

Jackson’s warmest temperature during this period was only 20 degrees on January 25, while every other day last week highs were only in the teens. The coldest temperature was -19 degrees on January 29.

We managed to pick up a whopping one inch of snowfall over the past week in the Tetons and no more than a dusting in the valley.

January 2022 Monthly Recap

January started out strong with heavy snow during the first week, then the pattern shut off completely with abnormally dry conditions along with cold temperatures over the final 3.5 weeks of the month.

Total snowfall for the month was 58 inches at the Rendezvous Bowl Plot at JHMR (9,580 feet), which is well below the historical January average of 86 inches. The Town of Jackson received 11.9 inches in January, which is also below the average of 19 inches.

In terms of liquid-equivalent precipitation, Jackson received 1.23 inches in January compared to an average of 1.53 inches.

Snowfall (the amount of snow that has fallen from the sky and accumulated) for the season is close to average at JHMR thanks to abundant snowfall in December, and a bit below average in the Town of Jackson.

 

Temperatures were a different story. Given the frequent high pressure and weak mid-winter sun, inversions were common and temperatures ended up running 7 degrees below average for the month of January in the town of Jackson. For the month as a whole, Jackson had an average high of 22.7ºF and an average low of -3.3ºF.

In fact, the temperature in Jackson fell below zero 23 times in January compared to just two times in December.

Temperatures above 10,000 feet (measured at the top of the tram) were comparatively milder and ended up close to average for the month of January (0.3 degrees below average).

This is not surprising given the frequency of temperature inversions (when temperatures are warmer in the mountains than the valley). However, the fact that mountain temperatures were near average along with the weak January sun can explain why skiing conditions have held up reasonably well all things considering.

In terms of snowpack (the amount of snow on the ground at a given time), we are running about 88% of average in the as a whole Tetons now. The graph below of snowpack versus average at various parts of JHMR reflect this.

Surprisingly, snow depth in the town of Jackson is right at average, and this is likely due to consistently cold temperatures.

Forecast for Monday (1/31) to Sunday (2/6):

A cold front moved through on Monday morning, and ironically enough, this resulted in a significant warm-up in the valley since the front eroded the inversion that has been in place. Between 5 a.m. and 7 a.m., the temperature in Jackson rose from -3ºF to 26ºF!

A round of early snow showers arrived with the cold front and off-and-on snow showers will continue over the Tetons with total amounts through Monday night ranging from 2-5 inches above 8,000 feet.

The Jackson Hole Valley will see amounts of less than an inch as west/northwest winds aloft will have a shadowing effect downwind of the Tetons.

This is the only meaningful snowfall (if you can call it that) we’re expecting this week. Colder air behind the front will result in chilly temperatures returning on Tuesday with highs only in the teens in the valley. We could see some occasional flurries on Tuesday but any additional accumulations will be minimal.

The real cold snap will occur during the second half of the week as an arctic cold front arrives on Wednesday morning. Wednesday and Thursday will be bitterly cold at all elevations with highs only in the single digits.

On Friday, temperatures will start to warm up in the mountains as a temperature inversion returns and strengthens, while the valley will remain very cold. From Wednesday through Friday, we will likely see our coldest temperatures of the season in the valley.

On Saturday, a minor disturbance is projected to arrive from the northwest with only light snow expected at this time, but it should at least scour out the inversion temporarily. Cold and dry conditions will then return on Sunday.

Extended Outlook:

The pattern continues to look unfavorable for significant snowfall heading into mid-February. However, there are at least a couple of chances for weak storms to arrive with light snow during the second week of February, which is more than we can say about recent weeks.

Temperatures should generally trend warmer next week as well, though we could still see some cold/inverted stretches in between storms.

If you’re tired of the cold, the good news is that by mid-February, the sun starts to get stronger and rise higher in the sky, and this often results in weakening/eroding inversions during the afternoons compared to earlier in the winter.

As for skiing and riding conditions (not to mention water resources and future drought/fire concerns), we’ll have to hope the pattern flips during the second half of February and March as we’re quickly trending toward a below-average winter during this prolonged dry spell.

Alan Smith, Meteorologist

 

 

 

Alan is a professional meteorologist who holds a degree from MSU Denver and writes weather forecasts for Buckrail. He has lived in Jackson full-time since 2015. He is currently a Meteorologist and Operations Manager for OpenSnow, which is a weather forecasting service for skiing and outdoor adventures. At OpenSnow, Alan writes forecasts for the Tetons, Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and North America as a whole.