JACKSON, Wyo. — The weather pattern has undergone a significant shift from frequent/heavy snowfalls in late December and early January to an extended dry spell during mid-January. Unfortunately for snow lovers, the pattern over the next two weeks will continue to be unfavorable, though we will see some light snow later this week.

January 10-17 Weather Recap

The weather pattern over the previous week was completely dry in Jackson Hole. A ridge of high pressure in place along with abundant snow cover and a weak sun angle at this time of year have supported all-day temperature inversions during this stretch of weather.

In the Town of Jackson, the highest temperature last week was 26ºF on January 12, and the lowest temperatures was -14ºF on January 10 and 11.

We’ve officially gone 10 days in a row with less than an inch of new snow at Jackson Hole’s Rendezvous Bowl Plot, which is only the 24th time this has happened since 1975 during the winter period from December 1 through April 1. So on average, this happens about once every two years, but it does appear to correlate with the winter as a whole.

This is also the longest winter dry spell (using the <1 inch parameter) since January 2014, when we went 13 days in a row without an inch of snow at the Rendezvous Bowl Plot. However, the 2013-2014 winter was still a big winter overall with well-above average snow in February and March.

We do have flurries in the forecast over the next couple of days, then the dry spell will likely end on Thursday night of this week. So it’s possible we just could break into the top 15 for longest winter dry spells.

Here are the 15 longest winter dry spells at the Rendezvous Bowl Plot (<1 inch of new snow) dating back to 1974-75. Note that the 1976 dry spell is far and away the longest, and this was also the driest winter on record.

You’ll also notice there have not been any long-term trends toward longer dry spells, as the years on the list are pretty evenly distributed since records began.

Longest Winter Dry Spells (< 1 inch of new snow) at the Rendezvous Bowl Plot:

  • 36 Days – Jan 17-Feb 21, 1976
  • 20 Days – Mar 7-26, 2004
  • 16 Days – Jan 9-24, 2004
  • 15 Days – Dec 15-29, 1996
  • 15 Days – Jan 26-Feb 9, 1993
  • 14 Days – Jan 25-Feb 7, 1992
  • 14 Days – Dec 16-29, 1985
  • 14 Days – Jan 27-Feb 9, 1984
  • 13 Days – Jan 14-26, 2014
  • 13 Days – Dec 8-20, 1980
  • 13 Days – Dec 11-23, 1976
  • 12 Days – Jan 7-18, 2010
  • 12 Days – Dec 7-18, 2005
  • 12 Days – Mar 7-18, 1994
  • 12 Days – Mar 9-20, 1985

So while 10-day dry spells are unusual in the winter, they are certainly not unheard of. And in some of the years on this list above, we still ended up having big winters overall.

Currently, our snowpack is about 100% of average in the Tetons, which is down significantly from a week ago. Snowpack relative to average will continue to drop relative to average through the end of January, but we’ll still have plenty of time to make up ground in February and March.

Forecast for Tuesday to Friday:

On Tuesday, we will see partly cloudy skies into the afternoon with highs reaching the mid 20s in the valley as the inversion weakens compared to prior days.

A cold front will arrive from the north on Tuesday night, along with enough moisture to result in cloudy skies and scattered flurries from Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon.

Snow amounts will be minimal through Wednesday, though the upper elevations could maybe squeeze out an inch if we’re lucky.

Highs will reach the mid-20s again in the valley on Wednesday but with cloudy skies and minimal sunshine.

On Thursday, skies will remain mostly cloudy with highs in the upper 20s ahead of our first organized storm system in nearly two weeks. This storm will be on the weaker side and will arrive from the northwest, but accumulating snow is likely in the Tetons from late Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.

Snow amounts should be in the 3-6 inch range above 8,000 feet through Friday morning, while the valley will only see a half-inch to an inch or so due to the shadowing effect of the Tetons with winds out of the northwest.

Conditions will start to clear out again by Friday afternoon with highs reaching the low 30s in the valley before falling below zero on Friday night.

Extended Outlook

Thursday night’s storm will only be a blip in an otherwise dry pattern. A ridge of high pressure will rebuild over the Western U.S. this weekend and remain in place for most if not all of next week.

This will result in a return to dry conditions, mostly sunny skies and temperature inversions. The inversion will return on Saturday with highs only in the teens in the valley in the days to follow and lows falling below zero.

Mountain temperatures will be comparatively warmer with highs in the 20s most days and lows in the teens.

Looking farther out, long-range weather models are hinting that we could finally see a return to more active weather around the beginning of February. In recent years (more so than in the distant past), February has been a big snow month for the Tetons. So who knows, maybe it will happen again this year.

Alan Smith, Meteorologist

 

 

Alan is a professional meteorologist who holds a degree from MSU Denver and writes weather forecasts for Buckrail. He has lived in Jackson full-time since 2015. He is currently a Meteorologist and Operations Manager for OpenSnow, which is a weather forecasting service for skiing and outdoor adventures. At OpenSnow, Alan writes forecasts for the Tetons, Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and North America as a whole.