JACKSON, Wyo. — The first half of February has been very dry in Jackson Hole with minimal snowfall. The atmosphere is finally showing some signs of “waking up” across the Western U.S. with a few chances of accumulating snow across the Tetons during the upcoming week.
February 7-13 Recap
Last week was dry with zero snowfall, but temperatures warmed up significantly compared to prior weeks. The warmer temperatures were a result of inversions mixing out due to several minor disturbances passing just north of the area.
Even when an inversion did return over the weekend, it was much weaker thanks to the higher sun angle and longer daylight hours, which are increasing rapidly as we get deeper into February.
We topped 40ºF in the Town of Jackson three days in a row last week, with a high of 45ºF on February 10 being the warmest reading of the week. The coldest temperature of the week was -3ºF on February 13.
The snowpack has continued to decline relative to average and is currently 75% of average in the Teton Range. For the Snake River Basin in Northwest Wyoming as a whole, the snowpack is 86% of average.
Forecast for Monday (2/14) to Sunday (2/20)
While we aren’t expecting any significant storm cycles, conditions will turn a bit more active compared to prior weeks with several opportunities for snow this week.
Clouds are already on the increase on Monday ahead of a weak storm system. Temperatures are starting out chilly, especially with the lack of sun, but as the inversion in place slowly erodes, highs will reach the upper 30s in the valley on Monday afternoon.
A quick round of snow will arrive early Tuesday morning with a few hours of moderate snowfall rates expected during the morning commute. Most of the snow will end prior to noon with only isolated lingering flurries in the afternoon.
New snowfall will range from 2-4 inches in the Tetons and a trace to an inch in the valley. Temperatures will be mild with this storm, so any snow that accumulates in the valley will be wet and slushy.
On Wednesday, another minor disturbance will drop in from the north along with a stronger cold front, resulting in snow showers during the daytime hours. The Tetons will pick up another 1-2 inches of snow with a trace to a half-inch in the valley.
Temperatures will be colder on Wednesday with moderate breezes out of the north.
On Thursday and Friday, we will see a relative lull in the pattern but periods of cloud cover and occasional flurries can be expected as minor disturbances graze us to the north at times.
A stronger storm will move into the Western U.S. over President’s Day weekend with the potential for moderate snowfall across the Tetons, depending on the exact track of the storm which is still in question this far out.
Although weather models are not in good agreement on the timing, the most likely scenario at this point is for light snow showers to develop on Saturday afternoon or Saturday night thanks to a leading-edge disturbance, followed by more widespread snow from the main part of the storm on Sunday.
At least one major weather model is holding off any snow for the Tetons until President’s Day on Monday, which adds a degree of uncertainty, but this model is an outlier as the others are projecting the main round to occur on Sunday.
We will provide an update late this week if the holiday weekend storm ends up coming together and looks to be a significant event.
Extended Outlook
Beyond the possible President’s Day weekend, cooler temperatures will likely arrive for a couple of days then we could see another storm during the second half of next week (around February 24-25). Early signs hint that this would be a weaker storm, but we’re still far enough away that this could change.
Alan Smith, Meteorologist
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