JACKSON, Wyo. — After a long winter and dreary spring, the Jackson Hole real estate market showed some signs of life in June, posting 33 closings for the month— up 50% from the same month a year ago— and generating more than $118 million in dollar volume—up 108.7% from June 2022.
Despite the strong performance from last month, however, year-over-year transactions are still down 13.3% from the first six months of 2022.
Following nearly three years of COVID-fueled real estate activity, buyers and sellers appear to be wrestling with the new normal in the post-pandemic market climate. Higher mortgage interest rates and general economic uncertainty also appear to be keeping the 2023 real estate market in check.
An increase in properties for sale is often cited as another factor in the Teton County market slowdown. But in looking more closely at the numbers, in July 2021— arguably the height of the buying frenzy—151 properties were on the market across all of Jackson Hole. Two years later, that number has grown 52.9% to 231 active listings.
To put that in perspective from 2021, when Jackson Hole inventory was at an all-time low, maybe one home in a given neighborhood was on the market. Two years later, now maybe there are two. In other words, inventory is indeed up, but the overall market is still teetering on the edge of whether Teton County can be described as a “seller’s market” or “buyer’s market.”
What’s not in question is the 23.2% increase in average transaction price for the year-to-date. The average sale price for the first six months of this year grew to $4.125 million, up from $3.35 million last year. Average stats, however, can sometimes be skewed by a handful of larger, exotic property sales, which helps to explain the 7.7% decline in 2023 median sale price to $2.4 million for a 3-bedroom townhome in East Jackson.
Land
Despite the finite nature of real estate in Teton County, where more than 98% of Jackson Hole is protected in perpetuity, vacant land is one segment that, at the moment, is statistically squarely in the buyer’s market column.
The 14 transactions in this asset class for the first six months of 2023 stand in contrast to the 74 properties currently offered for sale across Jackson Hole. It should be noted nearly one-third of these active listings are priced at $5 million or more, and elevated construction costs in the region have given would-be buyers pause when it comes to purchasing raw land and building a new home in 2023.
While the 14 transactions in 2023 are nipping at the heels of the 17 closings for the first six months of 2022, the vacant land average and median prices mirror the trend for the overall Jackson Hole market. The average sale price for 2023 is up 17.2% to $3.44 million, an increase that can be contributed to two large closings in excess of $10 million each. The median vacant land sale price dropped precipitously 33.3% to $1.5 million, for a 2.5-acre parcel of land north of town.
Condos
Comparatively speaking, the Teton County condo and townhome segment went on a run in Q2 2023, posting 25 closings in the last three months compared to only 15 closings in the first three months of 2023.
Some of that increase can be attributed to the success of the new developments of The Glenwood (www.theglenwoodjh.com) and Arts District West (www.artsdistrictwestjh.com), which accounted for 10 of the 40 transactions so far in 2023.
Even with the absorption of units in these two new projects, active listings in this asset class jumped 27.5% in the last twelve months with 50 units currently on the market across the valley. It’s also interesting to note only 25 units were on the market in July 2021, representing a 100% increase in active inventory in just two years. Given the pace of condo and townhome sales in 2023, however, this segment of the Jackson Hole market remains relatively stable compared to other property types.
Not surprisingly then, the average sales price in 2023 has jumped 21.6% to $2.29 million while the complementing median sales price is up 6.25% to $ 1.7 million, for a two-bedroom Golf Creek unit north of the town of Jackson.
Homes
Single-family homes drive the Teton County real estate market. Fifty-seven closings for the first six months of 2023 generated nearly $325 million in sale volume, or about 67% of the total dollar volume for Jackson Hole so far this year.
While different regions of the valley are experiencing varying levels of interest from buyers, the average year-to-date sales price grew 27.8% for the first half of 2023, up to $5.66 million compared to $4.43 million in 2022.
The median home sale price slipped slightly to $3.43 million, for a four-bedroom, 4,100 sq. ft. home at the base of Snow King, vs. $3.5 million for the same period in 2022.
As has been the case for the last few years, the upper end of the housing market is carrying the day. In 2022, 21 homes sold in the first six months accounting for $166.8 million. One year later for homes listed for $5 million or more, 2023 has seen one fewer sale than last year but the corresponding dollar volume spiked to $224.1 million or a 34.4% increase. These 20 home sales represent a fraction of the 117 closings so far this year in Jackson Hole, but dollar volume from these sales accounts for nearly half of the $482.7 million in real estate sold in 2023 across all property types.
Limited inventory in this segment of the market might be part of the reason. Home inventory has remained relatively stable in 2023, increasing slightly from 92 homes on the market in July 2022 to 105 homes for sale in 2023.
The data discussed above is based on the Teton Board of Realtors MLS, Areas 1-10 for 2022 and 2023.
