JACKSON, Wyo. — A return to winter-like temperatures can be expected this week following a stretch of mild weather, but we’ll only see one shot of meaningful snow before dry weather returns.
Areas above the valley floor have been experiencing warm temperatures for about a week with highs routinely in the mid to upper 30s on the ski slopes. Spring skiing has been in full effect, and it was a rather abrupt transition after seemingly endless snow in February.
Inversions resulted in comparatively chilly temperatures in the valley for much of last week, but on Saturday the inversion finally broke and highs have soared into the upper 40s since then. On Monday, high temperatures were forecasted to top out around 50 in Jackson.
The pleasant temperatures will come to an end on Monday night as a cold front arrives. Heavy snow will arrive with this frontal passage for at least a couple of hours during the overnight period Monday night. Check out the forecast radar courtesy of OpenSnow for 10 p.m. on Monday.
New snow amounts from this fast-moving storm will range from 3-7 inches in the Tetons and 1-2 inches in the Jackson Hole Valley.
Snow will come to an end by sunrise on Tuesday. Colder and drier conditions will follow on Tuesday and Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies – enjoyable spring skiing conditions will be replaced by less pleasant dust-on-crust conditions. We could see some occasional snow flurries both days, but they won’t amount to much.
From Thursday through Sunday, dry and sunny weather will return. Thursday and Friday will remain on the cooler side of average, then a more noticeable warm-up will occur over the weekend.
Check out the seven-day high-temperature forecasts compared to average for the Town of Jackson at 6,200 feet and for the top of the tram at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort at 10,400 feet.
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After being bombarded with heavy snow from late January through the end of February, the pattern has turned much drier since March 1. After our early storm this week, we will not see another meaningful chance of snow other than flurries until next week, around March 15 or 16.
California and Colorado will be the more favored areas to see snow this week, although Central Wyoming will see a round of heavy snow on Tuesday night and Wednesday. The Front Range of Colorado could also be impacted by a major snowstorm this weekend, so heads up if you have travel plans through Denver.
Snowpack Update
The snowpack settled quite a bit during this recent dry spell and is now just barely above average at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort – The Rendezvous Bowl Plot is currently sitting at 100 inches, compared to an average for the date of 97 inches. This may seem surprising considering how much snow we received in February and the fact that JHMR is closing in on 500 inches for the season.
However, there were minimal breaks during the barrage of February storms, so the snowpack has only just had a chance to settle from 5-6 weeks worth of storms, and warm temperatures and a strong March sun accelerated the rate of settling. Also, the February storms were consistently cold and featured even lower water content than usual, which may have affected settled snow depths as well.
A closer examination of snow telemetry stations (i.e. a network of weather stations in mountain areas that measure snow depth and water content of snowpack) reveals that the Teton Range and JHMR, in particular, is a relative outlier. Most other mountain ranges in Western Wyoming are not doing quite as well with 85-95% of average snowpack.
Not terrible, but from a water resources and fire danger perspective, it would be beneficial for Western Wyoming to see stronger and more consistent storms heading into late March and April to provide a late season boost to the mountain snowpack.
Most of Wyoming outside of Teton County and Yellowstone National Park is currently in a drought, so the spring months will be critical for picking up more precipitation before the summer dry season arrives.
There is some hope – during La Nina winters (which is what we are currently experiencing), Western Wyoming often experiences cooler and wetter than average springs. However, every year is different, so it will be interesting to see how things play out over the coming months.
