JACKSON, Wyo. – A series of storms will bring new snow to the Tetons and Jackson Hole each day from Tuesday through Sunday along with frequent strong winds. Deep snow totals are expected to add up over time.
Skiing conditions will improve substantially following a slow start to the season, but the combination of heavy snow and gusty winds will result in poor travel conditions. The valley will also (finally) see significant snowfall as well and temperatures will be cold throughout this storm cycle, resulting in low-density powder.
Recent Snowfall
Late last week, we saw our dry pattern come to an end with several weak storms producing decent snow totals across the Tetons over the course of several days.
Snow totals over the past 5 days (as of Tuesday morning) include 11 inches at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort, while Grand Targhee has received 19 inches of snow over the same time frame.
For the valleys, the town of Jackson has only picked up 1.7 inches of snow over the past 5 days, while Teton Village has received 3 inches. Teton Valley has seen higher amounts with 6 inches in Driggs.
Upcoming Deep Storm Cycle
The weather pattern is changing in a big way this week as a series of cold storms originating in the Gulf of Alaska are heading our way. A strong jet stream is setting up and extending from northwest to southeast from the Pacific Northwest into the Central Rockies.
This will act as a focal point for near-daily storms from Tuesday through Sunday that will produce frequent rounds of heavy snow and strong winds. These storms will be originating from a cold airmass (unlike the storms we saw early in the season), resulting in dry/powdery snow quality with significant valley accumulations also expected for the first time this season.
The first storm is underway on Tuesday and will bring widespread heavy snow along with strong west/southwest winds. On Wednesday, a weaker storm will arrive with additional light to moderate snow, while winds will not be quite as strong.
We should see a lull early on Thursday, then the next storm will bring more snow to the area from Thursday PM through Friday with strong west to west/southwest winds.
Here is a snowfall projection through midday Friday from the Colorado Avalanche Center’s high-resolution weather model:
Yet another storm is likely on Saturday and Sunday, and while the details aren’t set in stone yet (since we’re still 5-6 days out), this storm has the potential to be the strongest one of all with a more prolonged period of heavy snow possible along with strong winds.
The pattern should finally start to quiet down a bit on Monday with just a slight chance of snow showers expected at this time.
Here is a low-resolution snowfall projection from multiple simulations of the European Model, with the average position of the jet stream also noted:
Total snowfall over the next seven days (through January 15) will range from 2 to 4 feet in the Tetons, while the Jackson Hole Valley will pick up anywhere from 6-16 inches. Snow King will also pick up a much-needed 10-20 inches.
Travel conditions are going to be impacted on a daily basis through at least Sunday with strong winds accompanying the new snowfall, which will lead to periods of blowing snow and reduced visibility.
The highest impact travel periods are currently expected to be Tuesday, Tuesday night, Thursday night, and Friday through Sunday.
Last week, we talked about our unseasonably low snowpack by early January standards. This storm cycle will help a lot in terms of building up our snowpack, but we will still be below average after this cycle as we are already way behind. But in terms of skiing and winter recreation, this cycle will be a major boost.
However, backcountry travelers should be prepared for significant avalanche danger, as the snowpack structure leading up to this cycle is in poor shape. Check in with the Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center for the latest conditions.
Extended Outlook
Next week, the pattern does not look quite as active, but it doesn’t look dry either with the potential for additional storms on a comparatively less-frequent basis. NOAA’s Climate Prediction still has our area slightly favored for above-average precipitation in the 8-14 day outlook, while temperatures are expected to trend warmer (from below-average to near-average).
Alan Smith, Meteorologist
