Projected smoke particulate matter (red = heavy, blue/green = light) for Tuesday

Heavy smoke has returned to Jackson Hole after a couple of beautiful smoke-free and sunny days last weekend. California fires are the major culprit once again, but increased fire activity in Idaho and Montana is also contributing. The smoke issues will likely continue through the end of the week.

Otherwise, a dry pattern will continue with high pressure in place along with huge temperature swings in the valley between day and night. We’ve seen low temperatures below freezing for several mornings in a row with highs getting into the 80s.

Despite the chilly mornings, the afternoons over the next few days will be well above-average for this time of year with highs in the mid-80s on Tuesday and upper 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. We could even challenge record highs in the valley on Thursday.

Toward the end of the week, the weather pattern will change as high pressure breaks down and a Pacific disturbance approaches. Temperatures will begin to trend cooler on Friday with gusty southwest winds and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

A better chance of showers and thunderstorms can then be expected on Friday night and Saturday morning with decreasing chances by Saturday afternoon/evening. We are still several days out, so we’ll get more dialed on the timing moving forward.

A cold front will also arrive on Friday night and climbers should expect some light snow to fall over the higher peaks of the Tetons, but snow levels should stay above 10,500 feet.

Another weaker disturbance will arrive around the Sunday/Monday timeframe, but only a slight chance of showers is expected at this time with gusty winds likely to be the more noticeable impact.

A drying trend is then expected heading into the middle of next week with highs in the low to mid-70s. The smoke probably won’t be as bad next week compared to this week with prevailing winds out of the west/northwest projected most days, but confidence is admittedly low this far in advance as there are many small-scale factors that could change the outlook.

Alan Smith, Meteorologist

 

 

 

Alan is a professional meteorologist who holds a degree from MSU Denver and writes weather forecasts for Buckrail. He has lived in Jackson full-time since 2015. He is currently a Meteorologist and Operations Manager for OpenSnow, which is a weather forecasting service for skiing and outdoor adventures. At OpenSnow, Alan writes forecasts for the Tetons, Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and North America as a whole.