JACKSON HOLE, WYO – The 2017 Annual Indicator Report (AIR) is out. The document is a collection of monitored feedback on how well the county is doing achieving stated goals of the 2012 Comp Plan. It was presented to both the board of county commissioners and the town council last week. The three common values of community character identified in the Comp Plan were ecosystem stewardship, growth management, and quality of life.
The 39-page AIR identifies six community trends since the adoption of the 2012 Comp Plan:
- 59% of homes have been built in Complete Neighborhoods
- Conserved land has grown 1,600 acres to total 30% of private land
- The percentage of the workforce living locally has declined, but has leveled at 58%
- Jobs have grown at an annual rate of 3.7% compared to 1.1% annual growth in housing
- Family Median Income has declined
- Per capita transit ridership is flat
A breakdown of key takeaways in the three common values of community character were these:
Ecosystem Stewardship Takeaways
- The percentage of new units built in Complete Neighborhoods has increased each of the past 5 years to a 10-year high of 66% in 2016. Since 2012, 59% of units have been built in Complete Neighborhoods (goal: 60%) representing a major success in implementation of the Comprehensive Plan.
- Boding well for the future, the percentage of potential residential development that can occur in Complete Neighborhoods has increased from 36% to 49% thanks to the County’s rezoning of rural areas of the community. That number will increase even further when additional potential for residential development is added through Town rezones scheduled to be complete by July 2018.
- However, only 36% of floor area was built in Complete Neighborhoods. Because employee generation is a function of floor area, this means that secondary impacts from employee generation are still being directed predominately into areas of habitat, scenery, and open space.
- Our community continues to achieve its conservation goal, largely through private efforts such as those in Spring Gulch and Antelope Flats. The 1,600 acres conserved since 2012 mean that over 30% of the private land in the community is under conservation easement.
- While per person electricity consumption is declining, signaling increased energy conservation, we are not yet meeting our energy conservation goal of maintaining 2011 levels of energy use.
- Data for wildlife vehicle collisions are quite variable in individual years due to snowpack. On average, vehicle collisions are increasing; at about the same rate as vehicle miles traveled.
Growth Management Takeaways
- The number of housing units in the community has grown 5.5% since 2012, triggering the Growth Management Program.
- Residential growth (5.5% since 2012) continues to outpace nonresidential (4.1%) and lodging growth (1.4%).
- For comparison, jobs have grown 17.2% since 2012. The job growth is clearly outpacing growth in nonresidential and lodging floor area. Which means that job growth cannot be management through management of floor area alone.
- Winter effective population growth since 2012 (16%) has outpaced summer (9%) and shoulder season (7%) growth. Increases in seasonal workers is the primary explanation of effective population growth in all seasons (up 27-91% since 2012). Increased visitation in the winter (up 31% since 2012) provides the rest of the explanation for the growth in that season.
- The community continues to reduce buildout, as it has since 1994. At some point, the potential removed from area of habitat, scenery, and open space must be reallocated into Complete Neighborhoods if the community is going to meet its workforce housing goals.
- The community has done a lot of Comprehensive Plan implementation. This report does not indicate the community is meeting all of its goals, but work to do should not diminish the progress made by the community since 2012 to implement the ambitious list of strategies adopted in the Comprehensive Plan.
Quality of Life Takeaways
- For the first time in the past 10-years the decline in the percentage of the workforce housed locally has halted at 58%. The long-term decline means that a greater percentage of the workforce is commuting, but it is not due to an actual decrease in local workers. The number of workers living locally has continued to grow, but not as fast as local jobs.
- Meanwhile, job growth (3.7% annually) continues to outpace the development of homes (1.1%). That the percentage of the workforce commuting is not higher given the rapid job growth is a function of the fact that the jobs being added are largely seasonal. Which, as discussed above, also accounts for the growth in effective population that has outpaced growth in permanent population.
- The drop in median income in 2014 and 2015 back to 2007 levels indicates that the seasonal jobs being added are also low paying, which further exacerbates the affordability of housing because home values continue to rise.
- The percentage of the community’s housing stock that is second homes has remained steady for years, while the percentage of the community’s housing stock that is deed restricted has grown. It may be unrealistic to think we can “solve” our workforce housing issue, but a slowing commuter rate and steady second home rate indicate housing policy and investment is having an effect.
- In all seasons, lodging occupancy rates have grown at a faster rate (2-7% since 2013) than lodging units (1.4% since 2012), indicating successful achievement of the community’s policy of filling existing lodging capacity as a method of economic growth that does not require physical development. At the same time, increased lodging occupancy has contributed to effective population growth in the winter and shoulder seasons. This impact has been relatively more noticeable in the shoulder seasons. For example, the April occupancy rate is still only 14%, but that represents a doubling of the occupancy rate from 2013.
- Vehicles on the road continues to increase in the community. The number of summer average weekly vehicles on WY-22 and the Moose-Wilson Road has triggered both Preliminary Engineering and Construction Benchmarks for Capital Groups 1 and 2 defined in the Integrated Transportation Plan.
- The Integrated Transportation Plan scenario that slows the growth of vehicles on the road is dependent upon an increase in START Bus ridership. While ridership has increased overall, rides per person has been flat. Given the current ridership trend, the ITP goal of achieving 1.8 million annual START Bus trips in 2024 will not be reached.
- However, that per person ridership in the winter is 8 time greater than per person ridership is a testament to the success of Transportation Demand Management in the Teton Village.
- We do not monitor the level of service provided in the community with nearly the same rigor as other aspects of our quality of life or community character.
Read the entire report.
