JACKSON, Wyo. – A powerful storm will impact Teton County from Wednesday night through Friday, bringing heavy snow and gusty winds to both the Teton Range and the Jackson Hole Valley. Snow totals of one to two feet of snow are expected above 8,000 feet.
Recent Snowfall
One storm has already delivered impressive snow totals to the area this week. The storm started slowly with light snow developing on Monday night and Tuesday, followed by heavier snow during the overnight hours on Tuesday night.
A band of heavy snow set up across the southern end of the Teton Range on Tuesday night, with Jackson Hole Mountain Resort receiving 10 inches of snow (upper mountain and mid-mountain) overnight, and a total of 16 inches in 24 hours at the Rendezvous Bowl Plot on the upper mountain and 13 inches at mid-mountain.
Snow totals were not as heavy further north in the range, but Targhee still picked up a solid 9 inches of new snow and the Surprise Meadow station in Grand Teton National Park received 7 inches.
Across the lower elevations, snow totals included 7 inches at the base of JHMR, 5.5 inches in Wilson, 5 inches at Snow King, 4.9 inches at Jackson Lake/Moran, 3.4 inches in Driggs, and 2.5 inches in Jackson.
The snowfall on Tuesday night was dry and powdery with snow-liquid ratios of 15:1 in the Tetons (1″ of liquid = 15″ of snow) and 20:1 in the Jackson Hole Valley.
While this winter has been on the lighter side overall, we have seen a bit of a resurgence in February with heavier and more consistent snowfall.
The Rendezvous Bowl Plot at 9,580 feet has already received 68 inches of snow so far this month, and is almost guaranteed to surpass the monthly average of 76 inches over the next couple of days. And we are only halfway through the month. This will be the first time this season that the Rendezvous Bowl Plot has seen an above-average snow month.
The town of Jackson has already surpassed its February average with 18.9 inches of snow recorded so far this month in East Jackson and 18.0 inches recorded at the official climate site near the visitor center.
In terms of snowpack (the amount of snow on the ground), we have seen a steady improvement since early January when we were near record-low levels.
Snow water equivalent (the amount of water in the snowpack) is currently 83% of average in the Upper Snake River Basin. Back in early January, we were only about 60% of average.
Despite the uptick in snowfall this month, one thing that has remained consistent with the winter season to date is above-average temperatures. So far in February, temperatures are running 4.8ºF above average in the town of Jackson and at the Jackson Lake/Moran weather station.
El Nino winters are typically warmer than average in Jackson Hole, and that has certainly been the case so far this season.
Upcoming Weather Pattern
A strong storm will arrive from the west/southwest on Wednesday night with a prolonged period of heavy snow expected from Wednesday night through Friday afternoon. Strong winds can also be expected, especially during the day on Thursday and into Thursday evening with gusts to 40-50 mph at the top of the tram.
Total snowfall from Wednesday night through Friday afternoon will range from 12-24 inches (1-2 feet) in the Tetons above 8,000 feet and 4-10 inches in the Jackson Hole Valley, with areas west of the Snake River and north of the airport seeing the highest totals in the valley. Snow King will also pick up 6-12 inches.
Here is a projection across the Central Rockies from the Colorado Avalanche Center’s weather model:
Significant travel impacts are expected during this storm over Teton Pass and throughout the Jackson Hole Valley, with the highest impact period occurring from Thursday morning through Friday morning.
In addition to heavy snowfall rates and snow-packed roads, blowing snow can be expected at times in open/exposed areas.
Valley temperatures will be relatively mild with highs of around 34ºF to 35ºF projected in Jackson on Thursday afternoon, so daytime melting will occur on the valley roads before turning snowpacked and icy again on Thursday night.
Snow will eventually taper off on Friday afternoon or early evening with a break in the pattern expected on Saturday.
The pattern will then turn more active again from Sunday through Tuesday, with a southwest flow pattern setting up in which strong storms will hit California with residual moisture and energy reaching the Tetons. Warmer air will also arrive in this pattern, so the snow will likely be wetter/denser.
Here is a 7-day snowfall projection, noting the change from a more westerly storm track Wednesday-Friday to a more southwesterly storm track early next week.
Looking further out, an active pattern is expected to continue into late February with relatively frequent snow chances, while temperatures are expected to be warmer than average overall, though with day-to-day and storm-to-storm fluctuations.
Alan Smith, Meteorologist
