JACKSON, Wyo. – Snowfall totals since Monday night have ranged from 1-2 feet in the Tetons and 6-10 inches in the Jackson Hole Valley. Lingering snow showers and cold temperatures on Thursday will give way to a drying trend this weekend.
Recent Weather
Winter has woken up from its slumber a little bit recently, with two good storm cycles for the Tetons in mid-February.
The first storm cycle from February 9-12 produced 16-28 inches of snowfall in the Tetons and 8-12 inches in the Jackson Hole Valley.
After this storm cycle ended, we saw a return to spring-like weather and above-average temperatures, which have been common this winter.
The town of Jackson had three days with highs in the 40s from February 13 to 16, including a high of 47 on the 15th and 16th, melting away much of the snow that fell last week.
Another storm cycle began this week, and we have seen two main waves in response to a low pressure system over California that has gradually moved inland during the middle of this week.
Snowfall from Monday night through Wednesday evening has ranged from 1-2 feet in the Tetons and 6-10 inches in the Jackson Hole Valley.
Jackson Hole Mountain Resort now has a snow stake cam at the Raymer Plot on the upper mountain, which is typically cleared once per day around mid-morning, and is fun to watch during storms.
The first wave on Monday night and Tuesday morning produced denser snow with very strong winds. A cold front moved through at the end of the storm on Tuesday morning, ushering in a return to more seasonal temperatures.
After a break on Tuesday afternoon, a colder storm has produced low-density powder across the region since Tuesday night, and winds have also been much lighter, leading to excellent skiing conditions.
Wind direction matters a lot with storms in the Tetons. On Wednesday morning, southerly winds favored heavy snow at JHMR and also in the Jackson Hole Valley and Snow King, while Targhee did not see much initially.
However, a shift to westerly winds around midday Wednesday has resulted in much heavier snowfall rates at Targhee, while the upper mountain at JHMR has continued to see good snowfall as well, while the JH Valley has seen a significant decrease in snowfall since westerly winds have a shadowing effect just east of the Tetons.
Below is a 7-day weather summary for the town of Jackson. Note that the log for February 18 (today) was for the period ending at 7 a.m., and additional snowfall has accumulated since then.
For perspective, the average high and low in Jackson on February 18 are 33º and 12º.
Upcoming Weather Pattern
Snow showers will continue across the Tetons on Wednesday night and Thursday, but the snowfall will be more orographic (terrain-driven) in nature and will favor the higher elevations of the Tetons, with only light and intermittent snow showers for the valley.
On Friday, skies will remain mostly cloudy, but dry conditions are expected during the day. Another storm will pass south of our area on Friday night, and a few light snow showers are possible, but it looks minimal at this point.
Temperatures will be cold on both Thursday and Friday, with high temperatures in the low to mid 20s in the valleys, while high temperatures at 9,000 feet will struggle to get out of the single digits.
Saturday morning will start out with cold temperatures, but sunshine will return during the day with afternoon highs reaching the low 30s in the valley.
A significant warm-up is expected on Sunday and Monday with highs reaching the 40s in the valley.
Next week, a storm is possible around Tuesday-Wednesday (February 24-25), though confidence in the details is low this far out.
The 7-day snowfall projection below represents the average of 50 simulations of the European Weather Model. And this projection accounts for today’s snowfall as well as the snowfall expected around Tuesday, February 24.
Looking further out, there are mixed signals in the longer-range models for the final days of February into the first week of March.
Some models are projecting an active pattern with more storms, while other models are projecting a drier pattern with the storm track shifting northward into Canada.
In reality, we may see a little bit of both patterns, as larger back-and-forth fluctuations in the weather pattern are fairly common as the seasons start to change in March.
Alan Smith, Meteorologist
