JACKSON, Wyo. – Persistent high pressure will continue to result in dry conditions in the Tetons with limited opportunities for meaningful snowfall over the next 7-10 days at least. High temperatures will generally be in the 20s to 30s with overnight lows in the single digits to near zero.
Recent Weather Pattern
We are now on day 11 without any snowfall, and that streak will hit at least 12 days by Thursday. Based on 50 years of data, dry spells of more than 10 days between December and March occur about every other year on average.
This is the 28th such occurrence >10 day mid-winter dry spells in the last 50 years, in terms of days without an inch or more of new snow at the Rendezvous Bowl Plot at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort.
While December and early January were abnormally warm, we have been close to average temperature-wise during the past 7 days. High temperatures have been in the 20s to 30s with overnight lows in the single digits.
Still, we have not had any significant cold snaps yet this winter. Often, we can see very cold valley temperatures during January dry spells as strong inversions set up. But that has not been the case this year.
We have seen weak inversions in this pattern, but there have not been any significant cold air intrusions into our area, and light valley snow cover may also be contributing to weaker inversions than usual.
The temperature finally dipped below zero in Jackson for the first time this month on Wednesday. This is the coldest temperature of the winter so far in Jackson, and only the third subzero day (there were two days with -1º low temperatures at the end of December).
Here is a 7-day weather summary for the town of Jackson:
For perspective, the average high and low in Jackson on January 21 are 28º and 6º.
In terms of snow depths in the Tetons, we are still right around average at 9,500 feet, slightly below average at 8,000 feet, and well below average over the lower elevations. In fact, the JHMR Base Area Snow Plot currently has its lowest snow depth value for the date in the past 50 years.
Upcoming Weather Pattern
The pattern ahead will continue to feature a dominant high pressure ridge over the Western U.S. that will favor dry conditions. We could see some occasional weak storms try to sneak in, but it’s a marginal setup.
On Friday, a cold front will arrive, and it’s possible we could see just enough moisture to produce some clouds and flurries. However, it’s a low threat as most models are keeping the Tetons dry with light snow chances confined to Central and Eastern Wyoming.
The best chance of snow over the next week looks to be on Monday and Tuesday as a weak disturbance is projected to track across the Northern Rockies. This isn’t a sure thing for us yet, and if we do get any snow, it will most likely be a minor event.
The 7-day snowfall projection from the European Ensemble Model hints at this light snow potential for early next week.
The bad news for snow lovers is that the extended range outlook continues to look bleak. The dominant high pressure ridge over the Western U.S. is not going to break down easily, and while an occasional weak storm couldn’t be ruled out, the overall pattern is unfavorable for late January and into early February.
NOAA’s 8-14 day outlook picks up on this as well, with warmer and drier conditions favored across the Western U.S. and colder-than-average temperatures strongly favored over the Eastern U.S.
Alan Smith, Meteorologist
