JACKSON, Wyo. — Lift-served ski season is underway in the Tetons and the snowpack is off to an outstanding start this year thanks to above-average snowfall and well below average temperatures. The upcoming week will feature an active pattern with a significant storm on Sunday and Monday, followed by additional storms later in the week.

Recent Weather Recap

November has been quite a month with heavy snow early in the month followed by a multi-week stretch of unseasonably cold temperatures. In fact, November 2022 is going to end up being one of the coldest Novembers on record in Jackson.

So far, this November has been the coldest since 1938 in Jackson and could challenge the all-time record before the month ends. Since November 10, there has only been one day in which the temperature rose above freezing in Jackson and eight days in which the low fell below zero.

In terms of snowfall, the first 10 days of November were very snowy, but then we entered a mid-month dry spell. Last week, snow returned to the area with up to 12 inches falling above 9,000 feet at JHMR the day before Thanksgiving.

Snow has also been falling this weekend, with JHMR reporting 4 inches of new snow on Sunday morning, and Targhee reporting 8 inches of new snow.

As of November 27, the Rendezvous Bowl Plot at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort has received 68 inches of snow this month, which is above the long-term November average of 58 inches. Current snow depths in the Tetons range from 35-46 inches above 9,000 feet.

The Town of Jackson has received 14.4 inches of snow so far this month, which is also above the long-term November average of 11.5 inches. The base of JHMR in Teton Village has received 25 inches of snow so far this month.

Forecast for Sunday (11/27) to Sunday (12/4)

A powerful storm will impact Teton County on Sunday and Monday with heavy snow and strong winds expected. A Winter Storm Warning is currently in effect for all of Teton County from 2 p.m. Sunday through 5 p.m. Monday.

The storm is arriving via strong west/southwest winds aloft, along with an abundance of moisture and energy from the Pacific. Cold air involved with this storm will also result in high snow-liquid ratios, and a very dry and powdery snow event as a result.

Snow is already falling on Sunday morning as some leading-edge moisture arrives ahead of the storm. Snowfall rates will pick up on Sunday afternoon with heavy and widespread snow expected throughout the overnight hours on Sunday night.

On Monday, we’ll be on the backside of the storm but lingering moisture and an unstable atmosphere will result in snow showers re-developing, which could be heavy at times.

Strong winds and locally heavy snowfall rates from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening will result in poor travel conditions over Teton Pass as well as open valley roads with blowing snow and poor visibility expected.

Storm total snowfall from Sunday morning through Monday night will range from 12-22 inches in the Tetons and 4-8 inches in the Jackson Hole Valley.

On Tuesday, arctic air will arrive, resulting in a very cold day at all elevations. However, a weak disturbance will also arrive, resulting in cloudy skies and light snow showers/flurries during the day and into the evening.

On Wednesday, we should see a relative lull along with warmer temperatures in the mountains, while an inversion will keep the valley colder for most of the day.

Two more storms are expected to impact the area to some extent between Thursday and next Sunday, but weather models are currently in poor agreement on the timing and details of these storms. However, it’s likely we will pick up more snow during this timeframe.

Extended Outlook

A relatively active pattern is expected to continue during the week of December 5-11 with additional shots of snow possible, though confidence is low in terms of the strength and frequency of storms. Confidence is higher that temperatures will continue to run below average for most of next week.

Alan Smith, Meteorologist

Town of Jackson Climatology for November 27-December 4:

Average High: 34

Average Low: 12

Record High: 60 (November 27, 2017)

Record Low: -31 (December 4, 1992)

Precipitation Since Oct 1st: 2.49″ (84% of average)

Town Snowfall Since Oct 1st: 19.1″

Rendezvous Bowl Snowfall Since Oct 1st: 97″

Rendezvous Bowl Snow Depth: 35″

Buckrail Meteorologist Alan Smith

Alan is a professional meteorologist who holds a degree from MSU Denver and writes weather forecasts for Buckrail. He has lived in Jackson full-time since 2015. He is currently a Meteorologist and Operations Manager for OpenSnow, which is a weather forecasting service for skiing and outdoor adventures. At OpenSnow, Alan writes forecasts for the Tetons, Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and North America as a whole.