JACKSON, Wyo. — Spring fever has taken hold across Jackson Hole over the past week with dry conditions and well-above-average temperatures. We will transition back into a cooler and more active pattern this week with light precipitation chances. More significant snow is possible early next week, though confidence is low at this time.
March 22-28 Recap
A ridge of high pressure set up over the Intermountain West last week, resulting in mild and dry conditions with the warmest temperatures of the year so far. Temperatures reached the 60s in Jackson on three consecutive days from Saturday through Monday.
The warmest temperature of the week was 66ºF on March 27 and the coldest temperature of the week was 15ºF on March 22. The 66ºF reading was not quite a record but was nearly 20ºF above average for the date.
No precipitation or snowfall was recorded over the past week during this warm/dry spell.
Snowpack values continue to run much lower than average, and we’re nearing the time of year (early April) when snowpack typically reaches its peak in the mountains.
The current snow depth at Jackson Hole’s Rendezvous Bowl Plot (9,580 feet) is 71 inches, which is well below the average for the date of 103 inches. Snowpack in the Teton Range as a whole is 66-71% of average as of March 29.
Forecast for Tuesday (3/29) to Monday (4/4)
The weather pattern is beginning to turn more unsettled on Tuesday, but we are only seeing limited moisture as a storm system passes well south of the area.
The atmosphere is becoming unstable, however, and this will lead to the development of scattered showers on Tuesday afternoon. There is even an outside chance of a thunderstorm.
Snow levels will range from 7,000 to 8,000 feet on Tuesday afternoon, so any precipitation that falls will be in the form of rain over the valley. Showers will be spotty in nature, but heavier snow showers across the higher elevations could produce up to a couple of inches of snow.
On Tuesday night and Wednesday, conditions will dry out with a hard freeze expected, before warming up quickly into the low 50s for highs on Wednesday afternoon under mostly sunny skies. Wednesday afternoon will be a nice time to enjoy some spring skiing with a better melt/freeze cycle getting underway.
A weak storm system will arrive from the northwest early on Thursday, resulting in periods of snow showers along with colder temperatures. The Tetons will pick up new snow amounts of 1-3 inches above 8,000 feet through Thursday evening.
Snow levels will stay on the valley floor on Thursday, but accumulating snow is unlikely down low with temperatures expected to be above freezing for most of the event.
We will dry out again on Friday with cooler temperatures expected as highs top out in the 40s in the valley.
Saturday and Sunday will be warmer but slightly unsettled with more cloud cover expected as highs top out in the 50s in the valley on both days. A weak disturbance will pass north of the area on Saturday night, and it’s possible we could see some light snow showers arrive, but odds are not great.
From Sunday night through next Tuesday, the weather pattern is looking more interesting with two storms possible during this period.
Confidence is low in the storm tracks due to poor agreement among the major weather models, but we will have a better chance of seeing more meaningful snow across the Tetons during this period and the valley could even see some wet snow accumulations at times.
Extended Outlook
Cool and unsettled weather with snow chances will continue through Tuesday (4/5) with perhaps a late-season powder day on the slopes if we’re lucky. A slight chance of backside snow showers will persist into next Wednesday (4/6), then we will likely see a break in the pattern with warmer and drier conditions late next week.
There are hints that we could head back into a cooler and more active pattern with increasing snow chances during the weekend of April 9-10 (closing weekend at JHMR) and into the following week.
Alan Smith, Meteorologist
