JACKSON, Wyo. – A cold front moved through on Wednesday with snow showers developing across Teton County. However, a colder and drier airmass will take hold behind this front with a temperature inversion setting up from Thursday to Saturday. The only meaningful chance of snow over the next 10 days will be around February 13-14.
A relatively quiet start to February
Winter started off strong in the Tetons this season with above-average snowfall for three consecutive months in November, December and January. So far, February is off to a slower start in terms of snowfall compared to the previous three months.
The first five days of the month were dry across Teton County aside from some isolated light accumulations up high on the first two days of the month. A more substantial storm impact the area on Sunday night, bringing heavy snow to the Tetons with up to 10 inches above 8,000 feet. However, the Town of Jackson only received a half-inch of snow.
On Wednesday, a strong cold front moved through during the morning hours with a quick round of heavy snow showers and gusty winds. Scattered snow showers have re-developed on Wednesday afternoon, but snowfall numbers are not yet available as of this writing.
As of Wednesday morning, snowfall for the month of February has ranged from 10 to 15 inches in the Tetons and 0.5 to 4 inches in the valley.
Snowpack Update
Snowpack remains 104-105% of average in the Teton Range and Upper Snake River Basin as a whole.
Snowpack is also healthy across the state of Wyoming as a whole with near to above-average snowpack for nearly all areas.
Below are the snowpack percent of average values for the Western U.S. as a whole.
A temporary warm-up after last week’s cold snap
The first half of last week featured some of the coldest temperatures in years with the temperature dipping to -31ºF in Jackson on January 31. A temperature inversion resulted in continued cold temperatures in the Jackson Hole Valley through the first three days of February with highs in the teens above zero and lows in the teens below zero.
The inversion finally mixed out on Friday night as a weak moisture-starved disturbance moved through, and temperatures shot up to 40 degrees in Jackson on Saturday. High temperatures rose into the mid to upper 30s as well from Sunday through Tuesday, which almost made it feel like spring.
Cold and dry conditions return behind Wednesday’s cold front
A quick-hitting storm impacted Jackson Hole on Wednesday with the main feature being a strong cold front that moved through during the mid to late morning hours. A heavy band of snow associated with the cold front set up across Teton County for two to three hours before ending around midday.
An unstable atmosphere behind the cold front has resulted in intermittent snow showers developing on Wednesday afternoon.
Skies will eventually clear out on Wednesday night and temperatures will fall below zero as high pressure builds in, resulting in dry conditions in the days to follow.
The stable atmosphere will result in a temperature inversion setting up from Thursday to Saturday with highs struggling to get out of the teens in the valley. Highs will be in the teens in the Tetons on Thursday as well, before warming up into the upper 20s across the higher elevations on Friday and Saturday.
Unlike the Jackson Hole Valley, Teton Valley should see the inversion mix out each day with highs warming up into the 30s.
On Sunday, a moisture-starved cold front will move through with no snow expected. Ironically, the cold front should help to erode the inversion with temperatures cooling off at the higher elevations, while highs in the Jackson Hole Valley should top out in the low 30s.
Next chance of snow arrives next Monday and Tuesday
Early next week, a storm will approach from the northwest, bringing us our next chance of snow sometime in the Monday night (February 13) to Tuesday (February 14) timeframe. It’s a bit too early to speculate on snowfall potential with this storm, but there’s at least a chance there will be fresh powder for skiers to enjoy next Tuesday morning.
Monday night to Tuesday morning is also the most likely window for travel conditions to be impacted.
Extended Outlook
Following the February 13-14 storm, a dry pattern will likely resume through approximately February 17 with temperatures running below average for mid-February (the average high in Jackson in mid-Feb is 34ºF).
It’s too early to say whether or not inversions will persist all day like they have recently. Once we get to about mid-February and beyond, the sun becomes strong enough that it becomes more difficult for inversions to persist all day long.
So when will the snow return? Well, there are hints that we could see a more active pattern return over President’s Day weekend (February 18-20) and into late February. Confidence is inherently low given this is 10+ days out, but it’s something to keep an eye on moving forward.
Alan Smith, Meteorologist
