JACKSON, Wyo. – We are entering a quiet stretch of weather following a five-week barrage of strong storms during February and early March. A ridge of high pressure will set up over the Western U.S. from March 14-20, resulting in mostly sunny skies with highs soaring into the 40s and 50s in the valley.
Recent Weather Conditions
The first seven days of March were extremely active with some locations in Teton County approaching or breaking 24-hour snowfall records. The town of Jackson picked up 30.7 inches of snow in the first seven days of March and the Rendezvous Bowl Plot at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort picked up 68 inches of snow over this same stretch.
This was quite likely one of the snowiest seven-day stretches on record at both JHMR and the town of Jackson, though it will take a lot of data digging to be able to confirm this.
Over the previous seven days (March 7-13), the weather pattern has settled down substantially. A cold airmass set in at the tail end of the last active weather stretch with below-zero low temperatures recorded in Jackson each day from March 8-10.
An inversion kept temperatures colder in the valley than in the mountains with highs in the 20s in town on March 8 and 9. On March 10, the inversion eroded as winds picked up and a weak disturbance approached, and the temperature soared to 49ºF in the town of Jackson.
Jackson has recorded highs in the 40s in each of the previous three days (March 11-13), but overall, temperatures are running 5.4ºF colder than normal so far this month. Our last below-average temperatures month was in June 2023, so there is a decent chance we will break that streak this month (even with a warmer week ahead).
Snowpack in terms of water content is currently 103% of average in the Upper Snake River Basin, indicating a healthy snowpack for this time of year and a remarkable improvement from early in the season.
Snow depth (the height of the snowpack) is above average with a current depth of 107 inches at Jackson Hole’s Rendezvous Bowl Plot, compared to an average for the date of 96 inches.
Snow depth in the town of Jackson was last updated on March 11 and was 23 inches. This is well above the average for the date of 11.4 inches, but is not as deep compared to this time last winter when we had a snow depth in town of 31 inches.
Snow depth in the northern valley is not as impressive from a historical standpoint as the southern valley was favored with many of our recent storms. The current snow depth at the Moran/Jackson Lake weather stations is 39 inches, which is right around average for the date.
Keeping an Eye on the March Snowfall Record in Town
The town of Jackson broke a March 24-hour snowfall record at the beginning of the month with 17 inches of snow reported on the morning of March 2 (records in town are for 24-hour periods ending at 9 a.m. each day).
Thanks to the barrage of storms during the first week of March, we are actually very close to the monthly record as well. The monthly March snowfall record for town is 32.8 inches in 1938, and currently, we stand at 30.7 inches so far this month.
It is only March 13 and we are only an inch and a half short of the record, so there is a good chance we will break this monthly record.
Upcoming Weather Pattern
A ridge of high pressure will become the dominant weather feature across the Western U.S. over the next week, resulting in dry and sunny conditions along with warmer temperatures. Spring skiing conditions will take effect on the slopes with firm conditions in the mornings and softer conditions in the afternoons.
On Wednesday, we will see some lingering snow showers with decreasing clouds and dry conditions expected from Thursday through about the middle of next week.
As we start to dry out in the Tetons, a large area of low pressure will stall to our south with heavy snow developing along the eastern side of the Continental Divide in Wyoming on Wednesday and Thursday.
Central and eastern portions of the state can expect significant travel impacts during this storm. The heaviest snow totals with this storm are expected just to the south across the Colorado Front Range.
Locally, we will see low temperatures in the teens and highs in the 40s in the Jackson Hole Valley on Thursday and Friday with light easterly winds. On Saturday and Sunday, highs will approach 50 in the valley, and then from Monday to next Wednesday, we will see highs in the low to mid 50s with overnight lows in the 20s.
The snowpack in town and across the valley will gradually but steadily recede during this one-week dry and warm period, though we do have a long way to go before it melts off entirely.
Extended Outlook
Starting around March 21-22, longer-range models are in good agreement that we will head back into a colder and more active pattern with snow chances returning to the area. In other words, winter will not give up easily in the Tetons as is typically the case.
Alan Smith, Meteorologist
