JACKSON, Wyo. – A strong jet stream stretched across the Northwest and Northern Rockies will lead to consistent strong winds across Jackson Hole through Saturday, along with periods of snow and rain showers and back-and-forth temperature swings.
Recent Weather
About a week ago, the Tetons experienced a respectable storm cycle with 5-12 inches of snow above 8,000 feet on March 5-6, while the Jackson Hole Valley received very little snow.
Late last week and over the weekend, a cloudy and windy pattern took hold with occasional light snow showers in the Tetons.
This week, strong winds have been a near constant thanks to an active jet stream setting up over the Northwest U.S.
A sharp boundary has existed between colder temperatures to the north and warmer temperatures to the south, leading to a tight pressure gradient, which has also contributed to the strong winds.
Temperatures warmed up significantly on Sunday and Monday, but then a strong cold front moved through on Tuesday. The jet stream also dipped a bit further south into Western Wyoming in the wake of the front, which contributed to bands of heavy snowfall developing across the region.
The higher elevations of the Tetons picked up an impressive 8-12 inches of snow on Tuesday, with lighter amounts of 2-4 inches around Tetons Pass. The valleys also picked up 1-4 inches of snow, including 1.5 inches in the town of Jackson.
Behind the front, temperatures dipped into the single digits on Wednesday morning.
Below is a 7-day weather summary for the town of Jackson.
For perspective, the average high and low in Jackson on March 11 are 40º and 17º.
Upcoming Pattern
Strong winds will remain a part of our daily weather pattern through at least Saturday, before finally trending lighter. Two more disturbances will also move through, bringing snow and rain showers to the area.
The first disturbance on Wednesday night and Thursday will involve a warm front moving through, while moisture will also increase across Northwest Wyoming.
Snow showers will develop on Wednesday night with light accumulations expected in most areas by Thursday morning, including the Jackson Hole Valley. However, a rise in temperatures and snow levels will lead to a changeover to rain showers in the valley by mid-morning.
Snow levels (the rain/snow line) will then rise to 7,500-8,000 feet on Thursday afternoon with scattered showers continuing. However, shower activity will disproportionately favor the Tetons vs. the JH Valley, with only light rain amounts expected in the valley.
The biggest story on Thursday will be the powerful west/southwest winds with gusts to 60-70+ mph expected across the higher elevations of the Tetons, while the Jackson Hole Valley will see gusts in the 40-50 mph range.
On Friday, an unsettled pattern with mostly cloudy skies, mild temperatures, and isolated light showers will continue. Winds will also be very strong again on Friday, though not quite as strong as on Thursday.
On Saturday, another disturbance will arrive, and winds will pick up once again, similar to what we will see on Thursday.
However, an approaching cold front will be the main culprit for Saturday’s wind event. Snow and rain showers will develop ahead of the front, then a burst of heavier snow and rain is possible in the afternoon and evening as the front moves through.
Behind the front, conditions will start to calm down a bit on Sunday. Some models are hinting at some moisture trying to sneak in on Sunday-Monday, resulting in a slight chance of showers, but this is a lower probability scenario at this time.
Here is a 7-day snowfall projection, which represents the average of 50 simulations of the European Weather Model. Notice the deep snow totals expected north of the Tetons, and to a lesser extent, the mountain ranges east of Jackson Hole.
The big story heading into next week will be a major warm-up. A strong ridge of high pressure will build over the Western U.S. with record-challenging warmth already expected across a large portion of the West.
In the Jackson Hole Valley, highs are currently projected to soar into the 60s by the middle of next week, which has the potential to challenge daily record highs here.
NOAA’s 6-10 day outlook highlights the high confidence of a warm and dry pattern for mid to late next week:
Snowpack is also likely to take a hit in this pattern, even higher up in the mountains, with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s likely for most of next week between 8,000 and 10,000 feet, while overnight lows may not get below freezing on some days.
Alan Smith, Meteorologist
