JACKSON, Wyo. – Snow showers have favored the higher elevations of the Tetons in recent days as a cool and unsettled pattern has taken hold. A more organized storm will bring widespread snow to the Tetons on Thursday morning, while the valley will see light accumulations as well.
Recent Weather
A dry and sunny spell came to an end late last week with the arrival of snow showers in the Tetons on Thursday, March 21. Since then, we have seen additional rounds of snow showers every 1-2 days.
There have not been any major single-day snow events, but we have seen decent snow totals add up across the higher elevations of the Tetons over time.
Snow totals since March 21 include 19 inches at the Surprise Meadow weather station (near Surprise and Amphitheater Lakes), 18 inches at Grand Targhee, 10 inches at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort’s Rendezvous Bowl Plot, 9 inches at JHMR Mid-Mountain, 9 inches at Togwotee Pass, and 5 inches at Snow King.
In the valley, the base of JHMR has picked up a total of 4 inches (which quickly melted) since March 21 while Moran/Jackson Lake has received 5.9 inches. The town of Jackson has not received any measurable snow as recent snowfall has been melting on contact with the ground.
Upcoming Forecast
Scattered snow showers on Wednesday will give way to a round of more widespread snow from late Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon as a storm moves across the area from the southwest.
The higher elevations of the Tetons will pick up 5-10 inches of new snow from this storm. Snow will be on the wetter/denser side as milder air arrives at the leading edge of the storm.
The valley (including the town of Jackson) will also pick up 1-3 inches of snow on Thursday morning, as the timing of the heaviest snowfall rates will coincide with the coldest time of the day, and before the strong late March sun rises too high in the sky.
Slushy conditions are likely to impact the valley commute on Thursday morning, but the new snow should melt quickly on Thursday afternoon as temperatures rise into the upper 30s to low 40s.
The commute over Teton Pass will be slow on Thursday morning due to heavy snowfall rates and gusty winds, along with colder road surfaces that will result in snow-packed and slushy roads.
Conditions will mostly dry out from Thursday night through Friday other than some occasional light snow showers and flurries. Skies will remain mostly cloudy on Friday with high temperatures warming up into the low 40s in the valley.
The weekend forecast is tricky as we will be right on the northern fringe of the storm track.
A trough of low pressure in the Pacific Ocean will be moving southward over time, paralleling the California Coast, before eventually moving inland along the U.S./Mexico border.
Several pulses of moisture and energy will eject ahead of this feature into the Intermountain West from the south/southwest, but it’s not clear yet how much of the moisture will make it far enough north into the Tetons.
For now, the most likely scenario is for occasional light to moderate snow showers on Saturday and Sunday. However, if deeper moisture extends just a little bit further north than what most weather models are currently projecting, then there is a chance we could see more significant snowfall favoring the southern end of the Teton Range.
On the other end of the spectrum, the possibility exists that the storm track ends up even further south than currently projected, in which case we could end up with little to no snow.
Any snow that falls this weekend will likely be on the wetter/denser side, and if any valley accumulations occur (low to medium chance), it will be during the overnight and morning hours with melting in the afternoons.
Early next week, we will head into a warmer and drier pattern from approximately Monday to Wednesday with highs rising into the 50s in the valley. The next chance of snow looks to arrive sometime late next week (around April 4-5).
March Weather Summary (So Far)
The first week of March was exceptionally snowy, while the pattern since then has been more tame.
The town of Jackson received an astonishing 30.7 inches of snow from March 1-7, but has only received 0.5 inches of snow since then (on March 12-14) for a monthly total of 31.2 inches.
The March snowfall record for Jackson is 32.8 inches. We have been close to reaching this value for a while now, but are not quite there yet due to a lack of snow recently.
We will be able to surpass this record before the end of the month? It’s going to be a very close call, with our best opportunity on Thursday morning.
The Rendezvous Bowl Plot at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort has received 83 inches of snow this month, which is above the monthly average of 67 inches, but well shy of the record of 154 inches and shy of last year’s March total of 116 inches.
Grand Targhee is actually short of its March snowfall average right now with a total of 67 inches this month, compared to a monthly average of 74 inches. However, there is a chance that Targhee will surpass its March average with snow in the forecast during the final few days of the month.
In terms of snowpack, we are right around average in the Upper Snake River Basin and are likely to finish right around average on April 1 – the date that is traditionally used to evaluate the snow season relative to average.
Temperatures have been colder than average throughout the month of March in the Jackson Hole Valley. In the town of Jackson, temperatures have been 4.0ºF below average so far this month. With only a few days left in the month, this is a lock to be our first below-average temperature month since last June.
The chilly temperatures in March of 2024 have delayed the snowmelt in town and we still have a ways to go before all of the snow melts off down here. Despite the late-season chill and the delayed snowmelt, this winter has been much milder temperature-wise than last winter.
Last winter, we had a six-month streak of below-average monthly temperatures from November 2022 to April 2023. After alternating above and below-average in May and June of 2023, we then had an eight-month streak of above-average temperatures from July 2023 to February 2024.
Alan Smith, Meteorologist
