JACKSON, Wyo. – February continued the trend of anomalous winter warmth this year, as temperatures were 8 degrees above average for the month in Jackson. Snowfall totals were higher in the Tetons in February compared to January, but still slightly below average.
Recent Weather Pattern
Spring-like temperatures have taken hold over the past week, with temperatures running well above average for the end of February and beginning of March.
High temperatures have been at least 44ºF every day over the past week in Jackson, including a high of 55ºF on Tuesday. Snow cover has mostly disappeared in town and in the lower valley during this latest warm spell.
A storm produced heavy snow in the Tetons and rain in the valleys on February 25-26 before drying out late last week.
A weaker storm produced another round of mountain snow and valley rain on Sunday, with 2-4 inches of snow recorded in the Tetons above 8,000 feet, while the town of Jackson picked up 0.20 inches of rain. Snow levels (the rain/snow line) rose as high as 7,500 to 8,000 feet during this event.
Here is the 7-day weather summary for the town of Jackson:
For perspective, the average high and low temperatures in Jackson on March 4 are 38º and 15º.
February 2026 Review:
February was much warmer than average, with near average precipitation and slightly below average snowfall for most of the area.
The first week of the month was warm and dry, a continuation of the January dry spell. However, during the second and third weeks of February, we saw two impressive storm cycles in the Tetons, which led to some of the best skiing conditions of the season in an otherwise lackluster year.
Southerly winds also led to two significant snowfall events in the Jackson Hole Valley. Believe it or not, snowfall ended up right around average in the town of Jackson for the month of February, though it didn’t seem like it since warm temperatures and melting occurred in between storms.
One final storm cycle occurred during the last week of February, but this was similar to the storms we saw in December, in which heavy, dense snow fell in the Tetons and rain fell in the valley.
The town of Jackson also saw near-average precipitation in February with 1.81 inches compared to an average of 1.84 inches.
Temperatures in the town of Jackson were 8.2ºF above average, making this the warmest February since 2015 (temperatures in February 2015 were just slightly warmer than February 2026).
The average high and low temperatures in February 2026 were closer to what we would expect in a normal March (as you’ll see in the March preview).
There were more days with temperatures in the 50s in February (3) than there were days with subzero temperatures (2). We did have one cold snap, however, which resulted in a low of -11ºF. This was also the coldest temperature we have seen this winter.
February snowfall was 70-85% of average in the Tetons, but mid to late month was respectable after a dry first week of the month.
The Rendezvous Bowl Plot received 65 inches of snowfall in February, which is below its February average of 76 inches (data courtesy of the Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center), while the Raymer Plot received 72 inches.
Grand Targhee received 63 inches of snowfall in February, which is below its February average of 85 inches (data courtesy of bestsnow.net).
In terms of snowpack (the depth of the snow on the ground), the higher elevations at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort and Grand Targhee between 8,800 and 9,500 feet have snow depths of 88-95 inches.
There is a significant drop-off in snow depth at lower elevations due to the warmth experienced this winter.
The 14″ of snow depth near the base of JHMR is tied for the lowest on record for the end of February (dating back to the mid 1970s), while snow coverage had mostly disappeared in the town of Jackson by the end of the month. For perspective, average snow depth in the town of Jackson is 13″ at the end of February.
Winter-to-Date:
Although historical data is somewhat limited for Teton County, preliminary data shows that the meteorological winter of 2025-2026 (December-February) has been the warmest on record for a significant portion of the Interior Western U.S.
NOAA will release its in-depth monthly report sometime in the next week or so, at which point we can verify whether or not this was the warmest winter for Western Wyoming and Teton County.
At the very least, it’s fair to say this has been one of the warmest (if not the warmest) winters on record in Jackson Hole.
The map below shows temperature anomalies across the U.S. for the 3-month period of December to February.
If you take it back even further, the past four months (November to February) have all been anomalously warm across our region, and across the Western U.S. as a whole.
Here are the temperature anomalies in Jackson for the past 4 months:
- November: 8.0ºF above average
- December: 12.2ºF above average
- January: 4.9ºF above average
- February: 8.2ºF above average
There has been a lot of chatter in the skiing and riding community lately about how this has been a “drought winter”. But technically, that is not true.
There was one exceptionally long dry spell from early January to early February, but other than that, this winter has actually been pretty wet.
Believe it or not, total preciptation during from December through February was above-average in Western Wyoming and Eastern Idaho.
The Phillips Bench and Grand Targhee Snotel stations in the Tetons are both 111% of average in terms of precipitation since October 1st (the start of the water year), and region-wide precipitation anomalies are similar.
The town of Jackson has also received 11.50 inches of precipitation since October 1st, compared to an average of 8.37 inches.
Despite the above-average precipitation, winter season-to-date snowfall is only 65-85% of average across the higher elevations of the Tetons and around 60% of average over the lower elevations.
How can that be if precipitation has been above average?
The anomalous warmth has been the culprit and has contributed to reduced snowfall in two ways despite the above-average precipitation.
First, snow-liquid ratios have been much lower than normal this season. A given amount of precipitation yields less snowfall during warm storms with dense snowfall, compared to colder storms with drier and more powdery snowfall.
The average snow-liquid ratio at the Raymer Plot so far this season is only 9 to 1, whereas we typically are more in the 12 to 1 to 13 to 1 range (for the season as a whole) during an average winter.
Second, a higher percentage of precipitation has occurred as rain instead of snow across the lower elevations, and rain has even fallen up to the higher elevations a couple of times this season.
Another interesting aspect of this winter is that snow depths above 9,000 feet are actually close to average despite total snowfall being below average. This is likely a result of the snowpack having a higher water content than usual and not compacting down as much compared to a snowpack that was built by more typical powder snow events.
So, despite the weirdness of this winter, this has technically not been a drought winter, just an unseasonably warm winter. In fact, Western Wyoming and Eastern Idaho has seen a reduction in drought conditions since the early fall when we were in a severe drought.
Of course, a deeper snowpack is more efficient at holding moisture and gradually releasing it into the soil during the springtime as it melts.
So we’ll see what happens during the spring months as the snow melts, as springtime precipitation and temperature will both help to determine whether or not we enter the summer season in a drought.
Upcoming Weather Pattern
We are going to see a classic March rollercoaster pattern over the next 1-2 weeks.
After another warm day on Wednesday, a storm system will move through on Thursday with snow beginning overnight as a cold front moves through.
Behind the cold front, consistent moisture and northwest winds will favor Targhee and the west side of the Tetons for the heaviest snowfall, while JHMR and Teton Pass will continue to see snow showers as well.
The Jackson Hole Valley will only see light snow, mainly first thing in the morning, as northwest winds have a shadowing effect east of the Tetons and tend to result in lighter and more intermittent snowfall.
On Friday, lingering cloud cover and flurries can be expected, then a warming and drying trend can be expected over the weekend and into Monday, with highs getting back into the 40s and even low 50s in the valley. Varying levels of cloud cover will remain possible this weekend, however.
The next storm is projected to move through around next Tuesday (March 10), and this will likely be the start of a colder and more active pattern that may continue for most of next week. In other words, we may see one last gasp of powder skiing and riding conditions.
March Outlook
March is the first month of meteorological spring and represents a transition month as average temperatures in Jackson are about 9 degrees warmer than February and 14 degrees warmer than January.
Daylight and solar angle also increase more substantially in March compared to any other month.
That being said, March tends to be a volatile month that features sharp transitions between warm and dry patterns and cold and snowy patterns, and snowpack still deepens on average at mid to high elevations, typically peaking for the season in early April.
The lower valley snowpack tends to gradually melt off in March, though it has already done so this year. Jackson’s snow depth hit 0 inches on February 27, whereas the average date when Jackson’s snow depth hits 0 inches is on March 23.
In the past 16 years, we have seen temperatures as high as 66ºF (in 2022) to as low as -16ºF (in 2023) in the month of March.
Average snowfall in March is lower compared to December, January, and February, but the town of Jackson still averages 14.3 inches of snow in March and received an impressive 34.5 inches of snow just two years ago in March 2024.
New snow in town tends to melt off more quickly in March, given the stronger sun and the warmer temperatures at this time of year.
In the Tetons, average snowfall in March is 67 inches at Jackson Hole’s Rendezvous Bowl Plot, 58 inches at Jackson Hole’s Mid-Mountain Plot, and 74 inches at Grand Targhee. Data is courtesy of the Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center and BestSnow.net.
The snowiest March on record at the Rendezvous Bowl Plot was 154 inches in 2011, and the snowiest February at Grand Targhee was 161 inches in 2023.
For March of 2026, it’s shaping up to be a fairly typical month in terms of alternating colder and stormier periods with warmer and drier periods. However, temperatures are still likely to end up above-average for the month as a whole, while there are no clear signals for precipitation and snowfall, meaning we will probably end up not too far from average.
Alan Smith, Meteorologist
