JACKSON, Wyo. – January 2026 was a very dry month overall with minimal snowfall since January 9, which marked the start of a prolonged period of high pressure. The first week of February will be unseasonably warm and dry, but a switch to more active weather is likely during the second week of February.
Recent Weather Pattern
The dry spell has continued over the past week, and we have also seen a transition to spring-like warmth as a ridge of high pressure has intensified over Western North America.
Highs have been rising well into the 40s during the first few days of February, which is well above-average and near record levels for this time of year. Snowpack has also been dwindling in town, and it looks more like spring around town than early February.
The Tetons picked up some light snowfall on January 29 and 31, but it wasn’t much, and the Jackson Hole Valley received nothing other than a few flurries.
Here is a 7-day weather summary for the town of Jackson:
For perspective, the average high and low temperatures in Jackson on February 4 are 30º and 8º.
January 2026 Review:
January was both warmer than average and drier than average in Jackson Hole. The first 9 days of the month were active with frequent storms and a transition to colder temperatures, which resulted in arguably the only stretch of what most would consider good skiing conditions so far this year.
However, this brief active stretch in early January served to bridge the gap between an anomalously warm and wet December and an anomalously dry mid to late January and early February.
Starting around January 10, a dominant ridge of high pressure set up over Western North America and will have stuck around for about a month by the time it breaks down next week.
Dry spells happen here in the winter from time to time, but this one was more intense than usual.
Since January 10, the town of Jackson has received only 0.01″ of precipitation and 0.1″ of snowfall (Cocorahs WY-TT-40), and over this same time period, the Rendezvous Bowl Plot at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort (elevation 9,580 feet) has only received 5 inches of snow.
For the month as a whole, the town of Jackson received 8 inches of snow, which is well below its average of 20.6 inches. Nearly all of this snowfall in town accumulated during the first 8 days of the month.
The town of Jackson received 1.17 inches of precipitation in January, which is below its January average of 1.54 inches, and well below the 5.17 inches recorded in December.
Believe it or not, this January was not as dry in town as last January, when precipitation and snowfall amounts were even lower. However, this January was more heavily weighted toward the beginning of the month than last January.
Temperatures were above-average in January again, but the anomalies were not as extreme compared to December, which was the warmest on record for the state of Wyoming.
We did actually have some more seasonal cold weather in January, most notably from about January 17-27, when temperatures were near or below average most days. But for the month as a whole, temperatures still ended up 4.9ºF above average.
The warmest temperature of the month was 49ºF, which occurred on January 31 (but is officially “counted” for February 1, for the 24-hour period ending at 9 a.m. on February 1).
The coldest temperature of the month was -9ºF, which occurred on January 26. This has been the only winter since 2010 when the JKNW4 weather station did not have a single day in December or January with a low of -10ºF or colder.
January snowfall in the Tetons was only 40-60% of average, with most of the month’s snowfall occurring during the first 9-10 days of the month.
The Rendezvous Bowl Plot at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort only received 51 inches of snowfall in January, which is well below its average of 85 inches (data courtesy of BTAC). This was the driest January at the Rendezvous Bowl Plot since 2013, when only 45 inches were recorded.
Grand Targhee received 54 inches of snowfall in January, which is well below its January average of 98 inches (data courtesy of bestsnow.net). This was the second driest January on record at Targhee, narrowly above the record low of 53 inches in January 2022.
In terms of snowpack (the depth of the snow on the ground), the higher elevations at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort and Grand Targhee between 8,800 and 9,500 feet have snow depths of 69-72 inches.
The snow depth at the Rendezvous Bowl Plot at 9,500 feet is currently 90% of average, which may seem surprising given how this winter has played out so far.
But heavy snowfall in December, along with numerous dense snow events, likely has played a role in the snowpack only being slightly below average here.
However, the situation changes substantially as elevation decreases.
The snow depth at Jackson Hole’s mid-mountain plot is only 46 inches, which is 67% of average and is tied for the second lowest on record for this date since 1975.
Snow depth at the lower elevations are record low levels for the date. The snow depth at Jackson Hole’s base area plot is only 8 inches, which is the lowest for this date since records began in 1975.
Also, the snow depth at the Moran weather station near Jackson Lake is only 15 inches, which is the lowest for this date since records began in 1949.
So why is snowpack only slightly below average above 9,000 feet but at record levels below 6,500 feet?
This can almost entirely be explained by temperature. November and December were the warmest on record in Western Wyoming, and much of the precipitation that fell over the lower elevations in December fell as rain. The rain/snow line even extended high up into the Tetons during a few storm cycles.
Upcoming Weather Pattern
The warm, spring-like pattern will continue through Sunday with well-above-average temperatures.
Highs will reach the 40s in the valley each day and may even approach 50º on Friday and over the weekend.
Morning temperature inversions have been eroding during the afternoons, and limited valley snow cover, a lack of any preceding cold air intrusions, and a strengthening solar angle may all be playing a role in allowing for inversions to mix out.
Starting on Monday, February 8, a major change to the weather pattern is expected as the stubborn high-pressure ridge finally breaks down after a month.
A storm will move through on Monday along with a cold front, which will signal the transition back to more seasonal temperatures for this time of year. For now, Monday’s storm looks to be a light to moderate snow event, but it will signal a transition to more active weather.
Beyond Monday, there is low confidence right now on whether or not we will see additional snowfall on Tuesday and Wednesday as the main storm track looks to remain south of our area. But for now, there is at least a chance of snow showers.
Beyond February 11, a trend toward a colder and snowier pattern is expected to continue heading into mid-month.
February Outlook:
February is the third coldest and third snowiest month of the year on average in Jackson Hole in terms of long-term data, though interestingly, in the past decade, it has been the snowiest month on average.
Temperatures tend to be warmer on average compared to January as the sun becomes much stronger as the month progresses, but extreme cold snaps and extended stretches of cold weather can certainly still happen in February.
In the past 16 years, we have seen temperatures as high as 55ºF (in 2015) and as low as -24ºF (in 2019).
We have had some pretty epic Februarys in the past decade in terms of snowfall. February of 2019 was the snowiest on record, both in the Tetons and in the Jackson Hole Valley. The Rendezvous Bowl Plot received 193 inches of snow in February 2019, and, incredibly, the town of Jackson received 55.1 inches of snow that month.
On the other hand, there have also been some very mild and dry Februarys, such as in 2015 and 2016, when the town of Jackson received less than 4 inches of snow.
In the Tetons, average snowfall in February is 76 inches at Jackson Hole’s Rendezvous Bowl Plot, 70 inches at Jackson Hole’s Mid-Mountain Plot, and 85 inches at Grand Targhee. Data is courtesy of the Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center and BestSnow.net.
The snowiest February on record at the Rendezvous Bowl Plot was 193 inches in 2019, and the snowiest February at Grand Targhee was 156 inches in 2021.
For February 2026, we are certainly off to a warm and dry start, and that looks to continue through February 8.
However, confidence is growing that winter will return (or arrive?) during the second week of the month with colder air and at least some snow chances (possibly light at first), along with growing signals of a pattern more conducive to stronger storms heading into mid-February.
Looking further out, longer-range signals also hint at a colder and potentially snowier second half of February. In other words, there is hope for powder-thirsty skiers and riders who have not had much to be excited about yet this season.
Alan Smith, Meteorologist
