WYOMING — Invasive weeds is an ongoing, and increasing, problem in Wyoming, with non-native species like cheatgrass impacting the state’s ecology and economy. But according to the University of Wyoming (UW), land managers could soon find themselves armed with a new tool to identify invasive weed “hot spots.”
The tool is what UW calls an “innovative model,” developed by UW Extension Invasive
Plant Specialist Kelsey Brock and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists. According to a UW press release, the model uses records of where invasive plants were first spotted outside their typical range to predict future hot spots for new invasive species.
UW writes that the need for this model comes from the fact that, despite the efforts of state and federal management agencies and private landowners, non-native weeds are notoriously difficult to control even when early detection and rapid response
strategies are employed. And while the model developed by UW and USGS scientists is still in the proof-of-concept stage, UW and Brock are anticipating that it can ultimately be applied to invasive weeds newly established in Wyoming.
According to the press release, traditional models estimate distribution based on where a particular species is currently found and its preferred climatic conditions. This new model will examine how first occurrence records correspond to human infrastructure and environmental conditions, UW writes, since humans are the primary drivers of species introductions over large distances.
The current proof-of-concept model relies on data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) to predict locations in the continental U.S. at highest risk of invasion by non-native species. In Wyoming, the UW confirms the next step is to use first records data from UW’s Rocky Mountain Herbarium and other regional sources to create a Wyoming-specific model and verify its accuracy.
If the model successfully identifies areas most impacted by invasive species, the researchers will then investigate whether state-level data can be used to accurately predict county-based invasions. If not, the Brock suggests that it could be necessary to develop a county-based model using county-specific records.
“The more we introduce, the more we have to manage,” Brock says in the press release. “As bad as cheatgrass and other current invaders are, there’s probably going to be new ones that are worrisome as well.”
As the researchers refine their model, Brock predicts patterns could also emerge in how particular types of plants travel across the landscape.
The new paper and additional information about the modeling can be found here. Those with questions can contact Brock at kbrock5@uwyo.edu or (307) 766-3113.
