JACKSON, Wyo. – Following an active first week of January, we are now in an extended dry spell that will last for about another week. Temperature inversions will be common in this pattern, with warmer temperatures in the mountains compared to the valley most days.
Recent Weather
During the first 9 days of January, frequent storms produced 3-4 feet of snow in the Tetons and 6-12 inches of snow in the valleys.
However, a ridge of high pressure set up over Western North America last weekend and has been in place ever since then, resulting in dry conditions.
A temperature inversion has developed over Jackson Hole during this pattern, which is typical during high pressure in the middle of winter. However, temperatures have not been excessively cold in the valley with highs in the 20s to low 30s most days.
In the mountains, temperatures have been rising well into the 30s during this dry spell.
The town of Jackson has only recorded subzero temperatures twice so far this winter, and on each of those two days it only barely dipped below zero with a low of -1ºF.
The average number of subzero days through January 14 is 18, so this is another metric that shows just how mild this winter has been so far. Also, from 2010 to 2024, we had at least one day with a temperature of -10ºF or colder by January 14, while we haven’t come anywhere close to that so far this winter.
While temperatures have felt more winter-like over the past week, following several unseasonably warm days to start January, we still have not experienced any true cold spells. Through the first 14 days of January, temperatures are running 11.3ºF above average in the town of Jackson.
Here is a 7-day weather summary for the town of Jackson:
For perspective, the average high and low in Jackson on January 14 are 27º and 5º.
In terms of snowpack, the higher elevations (above 9,000 feet) are still above average in the Tetons and east of Jackson Hole, including Togwotee Pass. The lower elevations and valleys, however, are well below average due to warm temperatures and frequent rain events in December.
The map below shows snowpack relative to average by basin across the Western U.S. The higher elevations of the Tetons and Northern Rockies are in better shape compared to many areas.
To the south, the snowpack in Colorado is the lowest on record statewide for January 14. On the other hand, north of the border in Canada, the interior of British Columbia and the Canadian Rockies in Alberta are enjoying one of their deepest starts to the winter on record.
Upcoming Weather Pattern
A strong ridge of high pressure will remain in place over Western North America for the next 7 to 8 days, with the ridge centered along the West Coast and extending northward into Alaska. This blocking ridge will act as a barrier to storms from reaching our area.
Snowfall will be virtually non-existent over the Western U.S. over the next 7 days. A dip in the jet stream (trough) over the Eastern U.S. will favor colder temperatures and better snowfall potential compared to the West.
Mild temperatures will continue on Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 30s in the mountains and upper 20s to low 30s in the valleys.
On Friday, a weak cold front will move through with highs only in the low 20s in the mountains. Although it seems counterintuitive, this front will weaken or erode the inversion briefly, with highs in the valley rising into the mid 30s.
From Saturday to next Wednesday, a temperature inversion will set back up, and temperatures will likely be a bit colder compared to this past week.
During this stretch, highs will generally reach the upper 20s in the mountains each day while the Jackson Hole Valley will only see highs in the upper teens to low 20s, with lows possibly dipping below zero on some mornings.
Teton Valley will see warmer afternoon temperatures in this pattern, as this valley is better ventilated compared to the JH Valley, and temperature inversions typically erode during the midday to afternoon hours.
Looking further out, confidence is growing that high pressure will weaken and shift far enough west out into the Pacific around January 21 or 22 to open the door for storms to return to our area.
It’s too soon to say how strong or frequent these storms might be, but at the very least, we will probably see snow at some point late next week or into the weekend of January 24-25.
NOAA’s 8-14 day outlook is picking up on this “wetter” signal as well. While not a done deal this far out, it does give powder-thirsty skiers and riders some hope heading into late January.
Alan Smith, Meteorologist
