Editor’s Note: After further consultation with the experts quoted below, we have removed two paragraphs about elk survival and chronic wasting disease from the original article. We had misinterpreted some of the information shared at the presentation. Buckrail regrets the error.
JACKSON, Wyo. — On Friday, May 31 at the Center for the Arts, the event, “Heating Up: Grizzly, Wolf Management and Climate Change,” tapped Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) experts to discuss how projected changes to temperature, precipitation and water will continue to impact apex predators, specifically grizzly bears and wolves, in the area.
Joe O’Connor, Managing Editor of Mountain Journal, moderated the well attended event with wolf biologist Doug Smith, grizzly biologist Chris Servheen and paleoclimatologist Cathy Whitlock.
Dr. Whitlock, a professor at Montana State University, is the author of the Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment, the first ever climate assessment of an ecosystem detailing past, current and future changes in climate. According to Whitlock, in comparison to the year 1950, Yellowstone is now 2.3°F warmer and receives two feet less of average snowfall each winter. Climate models also predict more and more wildfires, a trend which has been seen since the 1970’s.
“Warming at higher elevations in the GYE has reduced snowpack and led to earlier snowmelt,” Whitlock explained. “We’ve also seen a shift in the season of precipitation with more precipitation in spring and fall and less in winter and summer.”
Servheen, retired U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Grizzly Bear Recovery Coordinator, shared a short presentation about grizzly populations in Yellowstone. He said that even though there are now more than 1,000 grizzlies in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, the species is still at risk due to warming temperatures, entrapment in wolf snares and the demonization of predators. Servheen says that discussing overall bear numbers is not sufficient in the conversation to delist grizzlies.
According to Servheen, less snow means that grizzlies are now more on the move. As it gets warmer each year, it is expected that bears will go into their dens later and come out earlier, but there is limited actual observations of this early emergence. It is predicted that if bears come out earlier in the spring, they could move to lower elevations in search of food, which could create a rise in bear and human conflicts.
Servheen said that in 2023, a significant amount of grizzly bears were out in December, causing them to be at risk of being caught in wolf traps. He said that snared bear casualty numbers are not being accurately reported due to lack of predator mortality regulations.
“If there is bait on the landscape, grizzly bears will be attracted to it and are at high risk to being snared in these traps,” Servheen said. “Wolf traps could cause a reversal in grizzly bear recovery.”
Since being delisting from the Endangered Species Act in 2012, snare traps have been used to kill wolves. Snaring utilizes a steel-cable loop to capture an animal by the neck or leg when they walk or step into them.
Smith, who worked as a senior wildlife biologist for Yellowstone National Park for 28 years and helped to reintroduce gray wolves in the early 1990s, told the audience that wolf management is driven less by science and more by the social predators’ resilience.
“I’ve always wanted better wolf management but it’s limited by social acceptance,” Smith said. “The historic solution is to kill them at a high rate. We need to find common ground, wolves need a conversation between all different types of people.”
Smith says that wolves in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem could also see a reduction in numbers due to climate change. The loss of snow impacts a wolf pack’s ability to hunt. Wolves are able to stay afloat of deep snow due to their wide feet, while elk and mule deer hooves have much less surface area and pierce through the snow, making it difficult for them to escape a wolf pack. If there is less snow, it becomes more challenging for wolves to secure prey.
“The best time to be a wolf is in the winter and it is the worst time for elk,” Smith said. “Changes in snow could be a game changer.”
Smith says it is drought which will ultimately decrease the elk populations. Less snow, warming temperatures and increasing forest fires is causing shorter, drier summers, which produces less foliage for prey populations. According to Smith, future predictions calculate that elk populations will decline by 50% as warming trends continue.
“Every winter is a survival test for elk and the summer forage sets them up to endure the winter,” Smith said. “If elk go into the fall season in poor condition, they aren’t going to make it.”
In years to come, diminished elk populations will directly impact wolf and grizzly populations. Typically, a grizzly does not have the ability to take down an elk, but they do feed on carcasses that they find or steal from wolves.
As the event closed, the panel urged for policy change to better manage wildlife in a changing climate.
“Everything is going to be changing … the entire system is being impacted by climate change,” Whitlock said. “We’ve shown our ability to fix things that are broken if we put our mind to it, like the recovery of wolves and grizzly bears. These species have no other place to go. Can we find bi-partisanship to protect the environment of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem?”
